Reverse Archimedes Screw Turbine

My home is a short walk from Mill St, where the first falling water powered mill was built by the colonists.   That stream had a number of mills along.  But, after the 2nd world war when housing covered the surrounding hills.  Removing the trees, adding the roads and storm drains sucked the water out of the ground quickly after storms.  The water in the stream become less dependable the mills closed.

All of New England was once home to mill towns.  Each was situated along a river where falling water could be tapped to power the mill.  Power rather than labor, markets, or supplies defined these businesses. This model imploded when coal became a preferable source of energy.  When you drive thru these old mill towns you can see lovely homes and mills that are now quite pitiful.

This is an American pattern.  If the business models shift we just abandon the cities that fit that model   We leave them to the poor.  The coal based cities need flat water to get the coal and they had better labor and access to supplies and markets.  These were flat water cities.  Later when coal was replaced by electricity, and cars replaced to walking, and phones and procedures replaced hands on management abandoned flat water cities.

Anyhow, there are lots and lots of little mill ponds and dams all over New England.  Sooner or later these dams will fail, but in the meantime I’ve often wondered why we can’t convert them to micro-hydro generation.  Is power too cheap to make it worth the bother?  Are the coordination costs or the regulatory barriers to difficult.  Maybe the engineering doesn’t work.

This chart shows what kind of tech ou should use for various hydro scenarios.

Tubine-operating-regions2-300x279

 

Most of New England’s old mills had water wheels; and the water didn’t fall very far.  How far the water falls is called “head”, and that’s the Y axis on that chart.  So from this chart we learn that we want to look into something called “Archimedes.”  That turns out to mean “Archimedes screw,” or actually something called a “reverse archimedes screw turbine” … though calling it a turbine is pretty silly.screw

Apparently these are extremely rare, though their are some in the UK, and there is somebody working on it in Canada.  This is a nice video of one running, and here is a nice animated version.  I have no idea if these are a good or a bad idea.

This chart, reportedly, shows feasiblity.  They still need a lot of water.  Which tends to suggest why this paper is so pessimistic.  The entire cost/benefit of the 19th century New England mills lived it would appear in a very different world.

I wonder if these would be practical for energy storage as well.  All the good hydro-storage sites are taken, but if they don’t need as much head then, presumably, other venues would become viable.

Novare Res

Portland Maine is very lucky, they have an amazing bar!  Affordable too!IMAG0432Portland’s harbor is protected by a number of extremely cute little islands.  These can be reached by ferry.  Some of them have little newspapers full of articles about the residents.  For example I read an article once about the man who brings the interlibrary loan books.

It was in one of these I first read about this bar.  It seems that they have a room where you can store your chalice, but first you must earn your chalice.  The article told the story of a resident who had recently obtained that right.  Each day for near on a year he had left work and before heading on down to the ferry and home he had stopped in at the bar to ordering another kind of beer until he had ticked off a sufficiently long list.

That seemed like a worthy achievement and a very romantic lifestyle.

I had a Jandrain-Jandrenouille IV Saison, lucky me!

 

Plot-Window

I’ve been playing with Parenscript and Websockets.  I’ve made a small useful thing.  Plot-window can be used to plot data from your Common Lisp repl.  It displays the plot into a web page; you leave this web page up as you work, the plot function revises the web page on demand.

Here’s a little screen cast. That shows how to clone it from github, load it up, start a little embedded webserver, open the display page in the browser, and then finally we make a makes a few plots from the REPL.

The actual charts are rendered by Flot, one of many Javascript charting libraries.  So you can actually make many many different kinds of charts.  (FYI Liam Healy has a posting about a more traditional approach to Lisp charting.)

Finally, this short video is a preview of how this might be extended to use a web browser as a generalized display for your lisp process, in this case a Parenscript form is evaluated in emacs which builds and animates a page (using D3JS and SVG).

Metering, discriminatory pricing, subscriptions … Adobe.

Pricing is a mess.  On the one hand you can argue that things should cost exactly what they cost to produce (including, of course, a pleasant lifestyle for their producers).  On the other hand you can argue that they should cost exactly whatever value their users extract from the product. Surplus is the term of art.  If you charge less than the value extracted the consumer is left to capture the surplus value.

More than a decade ago I had a bit of fun at the expense of my employeer arguing that we should switch all our pricing to subscription, just as Adobe has just recently decided to.  My suggestion was greeted with an abundance eye rolling and head shaking.

Leaving surplus value on the table can be very risky for the producer.  It’s not just about how pleasant a lifestyle he get’s (aka greed).  Businesses are multi-round games; what you can invest in the next round of the game depends on how much of the surplus value you capture v.s. your competitors.   But also businesses with large market share and large volumes gain scale advantages that drive down costs, establish standards, and generally create positive feedback loops.  (That leads to the perverse tendency for the largest vendor to be the best and the cheapest.)  Which brings us to discriminatory pricing, aka value pricing.

The demand side network effects depend on the scale of your installed base.  Discounting lets you reach users that you wouldn’t otherwise.  If you can segment your market then you can enlarge it.  There is a standard text book illustration for this.

priceing

That chart shows the number of buyers your product will have if you charge various prices, or looking at it another way it’s showing you how much value users think they will get from your product.  If you’d like a lot of users you should charge the green price.  Your total revenue is, of course, the volume of the rectangle.  Why not both?  Why stop there?   As a vendor, what you’d love charge everybody exactly what they are willing to pay.  You could have both the maximum number of users and all the volume (revenue) under that curve.

Subscription pricing gives you a tool, because it lets’ you meter usage, that can stand in as a proxy for the value the users are getting from the product.

I was surprised by Adobe’s subscription pricing, not because it’s expensive and draconian.  No, I was surprised because it appears to have no metering.  My insta-theory for why?  Well I think what we are seeing at this stage is the classic: e.g. “list price.”  That they will start offering various discounted variations on the service.  It would be odd if they don’t.  Because, otherwise, they are leaving two things on the table.  They are shunning a huge pool of users, missing out on all the demand side network effects they create, and encouraging competitors to fill into that abandoned market segment.  And, they are leaving money on the table.

I’ve no idea what they will meter, but I’d be surprised if they don’t.

 

Frightening the Baby Boomers

This report has an interesting detail.  It mentions in passing that men between 55-65 continue to participate in the labor force at roughly pre-recession levels.  All other groups have sharply reduced levels participation rates.   Increased economic uncertainty has scared them into holding onto their jobs.  They did not to retire.

Old Habits

I’m enjoying Planet Lisp’s feed of new Lisp projects at github: http://planet.lisp.org/github.atom.

Long long time ago I fell into a coding convention.  Most of my little projects have a file where I define the package (or packages); and this file is loaded first.  Most projects I see at github follow this style.  But a few don’t.  Further I never ever switch packages inside of a given source file.

I think it’s time to set aside these habits.

I’m reasonably confident that both these habits arose because of Emacs limitations.  Back in the day it wasn’t particularly clever about handling the package.   I don’t think I ever worked in a version that was so limited that it required the package to be asserted in the mode line, but I certainly have worked on code bases were every file asserted the package twice, at the top, once in the mode line and once via in-package.

I certainly worked in variants of emacs that had firm limits on the in-package form; i.e. that it appear early in the file, and that you not switch packages.

The only reason this worth stating out loud is because I see a lot of little projects that consist of three files:   my-project.asd, package.lisp, and my-project.lisp.   That pattern is, I think, obsolete.  There really isn’t a good reason anymore for the package.lisp file for simple little things.

  (in-package #:cl-user)
  (defpackage #:my-little-package
    (:uses #:common-lisp))
  (in-package #:my-little-package)

  (defun my-awesome-hack ()
    ; ...
  )

While I am waffling about the value of including a mode line at this point, as shown I’m leaning toward eliminating it too.

WDYT?

Big Warm Blooded Animals

This is a lovely simple article: How Large Should Whales Be?  It’s a simple article because it builds on an earlier article about the sizes of land mammals.

The model in the article rests on some stylized facts about animal size. Fossils show that over time species tends to get larger; we can presume there is a benefit to being larger.  Warm blooded animals have a minimun size; if your tiny it’s hard to keep warm. Most warm blooded animals are about the size of a large rat (or squirrel).  Which doesn’t really make sense since we already said that larger is better.

The tension between the advantages of size and the fact that most warm blooded animals aren’t huge is – they say – about extinction. On the one hand it takes time to evolve into something huge and on the other hand the speicies is always at some risk of going extinct. This is almost enough to build a model that explains the distirbution of sizes for warm blooded animals. We need only one more detail – i.e. that larger animals are more likely to go extinct. I gather the model works extremely well.

animal_size

The paper just extends the model from land to sea. Showing that the model works very nicely for whales and such. It’s harder to keep warm in the water, so the minimum size for a aquatic mammal is larger than that of a land mammal. My favorite factoid from the paper is that land mammals moved into the water as soon as grew larger than the warmblooded aquatic minimum.

Why are larger species are more likely to go extinct? It’s bit counter intuitive. Size has a short term advantage, otherwise they wouldn’t evolve toward larger sizes.  A large animal has, in effect, a larger bank account and that let’s him buffer life’s vicissitudes.  But why would it be good in the short term and bad in the long term.  A possible logic is that any species resides in some niche, and it’s a bigger then you get a smaller population filling the niche. Small populations are easier to wipe out.

I don’t really see any hope that this model is useful in other contexts closer to my interests: firm size, wealth distributions, city size, etc.  Their size distributions don’t look like that illustration, not at all.  They have much longer tails to the right.  Suggesting the extinction events are rare for them.  But it’s an amusing exercise to try. Look for the analogies to theromodynamics, evolution, and extinction events.

“prescription” swim goggles

This is a product testimonial :).  Unemployment has given me the time to start swimming again.   I goto the Y.  I bought my self some new googles.

I’ve long coveted a pair of prescription swim goggles.  Even though I am a huge fan of buying my glasses over the Internet swim goggles have been very expensive.  Well, times have changed.

You can find sellers on Amazon who will sell you a pair for 25$ up (plus shipping).  And I bought my pair on eBay from china for less than $10 (total).   These offers aren’t exact prescription; you round your prescription to the # that the vendor offers and buy those.  The ones on eBay required that both eyes are reasonably similar; but there are some vendors on Amazon that will let you order different #’s for each eye.

I’m extremely happy with mine.  It’s nice not to be blind.  Today I discovered that there are very thought provoking chips in the tiles at the bottom of the deep end in the pool.  Sometimes, when swimming laps I switch lanes, moving into an empty lane.  It will be nice knowing that the lane is actually empty.

What’s new in Quicklisp

A new Quicklisp release is out.  “New projects: cl-arff-parser, cl-bayesnet, cl-libpuzzle, cl-one-time-passwords, cl-rrt, cl-secure-read, function-cache, gendl, sha3, trivial-raw-io, yaclanapht. … Updated projects…”

I spent a few minutes looking at the new ones, so here’s a bit more info…

cl-arff-parserhttps://github.com/pieterw/cl-arff-parser#readme (BSD?)  Reader for ARFF (Attribute-Relation File Format) file, an ASCII file that describes a list of instances sharing a set of attributes.

cl-bayesnethttps://github.com/lhope/cl-bayesnet#readme (LLGPL)
a tool for the compilation and probability calculation of discrete, probabilistic Bayesian Networks.

cl-libpuzzlehttps://github.com/pocket7878/cl-libpuzzle#readme (LLGPL)
A foriegn function bridge to libpuzzle, a library for finding similar pictures
see also: http://linux.die.net/man/3/libpuzzle

cl-one-time-passwordshttps://github.com/bhyde/cl-one-time-passwords#readme (apache2)
implementation of the HOTP and TOTP standard as used in google authenticator and others for 2-factor authentication.

cl-rrthttps://github.com/guicho271828/cl-rrt#readme (LLGPL)
a … multidimentional path-plannning algorithm… use[d] in robotics … car drivings …

cl-secure-readhttps://github.com/mabragor/cl-secure-read#readme (GPLv3)
Based on the “Let of Lambda” secure reader.

function-cachehttps://github.com/AccelerationNet/function-cache#readme (BSD)
an expanded form of memoization

gendlhttps://github.com/genworks/gendl#readme (AGPL)
A big Generative Programming and Knowledge Based Engineering framework. Previously known as genworks-gdl.

sha3https://github.com/pmai/sha3#readme (MIT/X11)
Implementation of the Secure Hash Algorithm 3 (SHA-3), also known as Keccak

trivial-raw-io – https://github.com/redline6561/trivial-raw-io#readme (BSD)
… export three simple symbols: with-raw-io, read-char, and read-line

yaclanaphthttps://github.com/mabragor/anaphora#readme (GPL3)
Improvement/fork of Nicodemus Siivola’s ANAPHORA, with license change.