Category Archives: economics

The Patriarchy’s Pollen Preference

Paul Krugman is much amused by the realization that the  origin of Pigouvian taxes(i.e. the idea that the temptation to dump your pollution into the community water supply  might be tempered by a tax on such behavior) never actually mentions pollution but rather only mentions the problem where in one landowner’s enthusiasm for hunting causes a surplus of rabbits to spill out damaging his neighbor’s gardens.

Here’s another fun example of an externality.  Apparently landscape designers have a preference for male plants over female.  The female plants drop more litter, i.e. seed pods and fruit.  Somebody has to sweep up the mess, the clients complain, the landscape designers respond.  While the male plants just pump out vast clouds of  pollen.  Which triggers more allergic reactions from the general public.  But the general public isn’t paying the landscape designers, now are they?

I guess there are alternative schemes to address this.

  • Ignore it.
  • Follow well worn path laid out by the tobacco industry, fast food, and anti-enviromental forces; and mount a disinformation campaign.  (Hint: Be sure to mention freedom, choice and unintended consequences.)
  • Campaign to change the behavior of landscaping  profession.
  • Regulation
  • Tax Pollen
  • Pollen cap and trade.

I’m totally in love with the idea of pollen cap and trade, and I look forward to the fraudulent pollen credit story.

hat tip: Heebie-Geebie, and see also Bee Hive.

Sardine

The library of congress has an wonderful collection of photographs taken at sardine packing plants.  Thus I came to learn the word cartoner.  Which was once a person, but is now a machine.      Today comes news that the last such cannery in the US is shutting down, along with a few pictures.  This all resonates against a conversation my wife and I had yesterday about how maybe none of the high tech companies that were in Boston when we moved here in the late 70s still exist.

This Time is Different

“This Time is Different” is a  fascinating  book.  It’s full of provocative confusing details.  It does a wonderful job of helping to further the cause of making it clear economics has got a lot of work yet to do.  There are lots of different large economic scale failure modes.  Inflation, deflation, international debt default, intra-national debt default, etc. etc.  I’m actually convinced they haven’t enumerated a very complete list; for example economic displacement isn’t on their list.

I am reminded of the observation in “Control of Nature” about LA canyon  real estate.  The catastrophic floods are rare compared to how often the property turns over so that residents tend to have no memory of what’s in store.  People still remember the 70’s high inflation.  But here’s a chart showing the  incidence  of deflation.

Here are three things, picked somewhat at random, from the book (so far) I found interesting.

When nations default on their international debt creditors have few effective responses.  In passing them mention that American gun boat  diplomacy  visa vie South America arose out efforts to collect after Venezuela defaulted.  That’s not really what I was taught in school about the Monroe Doctrine.  There is an example of a nation losing it’s sovereignty  upon defaulting on their international debt.  I bet you didn’t know the Newfoundland  was forced to merge with Canada by the Brits during the depression.  But it’s so rare as to be the exception that proves the rule.

There is a nice turn of phrase “odious debt” used to loosely label debt that doesn’t deserve to be repaid.  A simple example of odious debt would be that your country is taken over by a vile dictator who then engages in all kinds of vile behavior; meanwhile lenders in other countries continue loaning him lots of money; which he uses to further torture the population.  Finally the citizens manage to eject him.  That debt is odious and the new government decides to default on it.  Of course there are other less colorful scenarios with less obvious outcomes familiar to anybody who’s observed bankers in the  absence  of consumer protections.

Finally they mention how in China and India the governments regulate things so that people have very limited choices when it comes to savings.  They call this financial oppression; a turn of phrase I see has having great potential in our polarized political discourse.  The governments also regulate what the banks can do with the deposits.  People love to spin fanciful ideas about  alternatives  to the banking system, and I suspect you could find an interesting set of examples in such countries.  For example they mention that savers turn to gold and  jewelry  as an  alternative.

Guard Labor – II

I’m still chewing on the idea of guard labor, so a pile of random thoughts I’ve been having.

Businesses adapt the ratio between guard labor v.s. productive labor. That ratio varies across firms within industries, from one industry to another, and inside of firms from on department to another. Presumably there is a great deal of peering over the walls. A lot of monkey see monkey do as people search for a different balance. For example if the neighbor organization appears more successful and they don’t spend time on daily progress reporting and your organization does then you might be tempted to jigger things; reducing the ratio of guard to productive labor.

The work done by labor shifts. It can shift into automation or codified processes and procedures. If the neighbor is using an elegant status board your organization might be tempted try that out. In effect shifting guard labor into automation. Processes and procedures are a capital investment. How you depreciate and retire them feeds directly into organizational agility. If a neighboring organization appears to be successful by setting aside their rule book and replacing it with a charismatic manager then you might try that. In effect shifting automation into guard labor.

If you cast this in an exaggerated light you’ll notice plenty of opportunity for polarization. For example guard labor may fall into the bad habit of talking up how lazy the productive labor is; not because they dislike the productive labor but because it helps to justify their role (talking their book). Same thing happens for al the pairs; e.g. X v.s. automation and other roles like customers and suppliers. Most organization players flirt with the guilty pleasure kind of such exaggerated behaviors. It’s worth noting that there is plenty of opportunity for similar polarizing behaviors to be found the variability across departments, between firms, etc.

Automation (or processed and procedures) means that productive labor can be highly guarded even in the absence of guard labor. The assembly line worker’s role is extremely guarded, by the machines that surround him. In that scenario the guard labor ratio is low, with say only one supervisor for a a dozen production workers. So how guarded work is somewhat independent of how much guard labor is involved. Mechanical turk workers might be a example of an outlier in that space – highly guarded work with very minimal guard labor.

It is a challenge to label the axis for how guarded labor is. One extreme might be labeled slavery, bound labor. At the other end we might expect to find labor that is enjoying very high values of achieving the people’s core concerns (appreciation, autonomy, affiliation, …).  There are plenty of things that can bind labor: salary; stock options; roots in the firm or locality; specialized skills; lack of other options. In the Americas importing slaves from Africa was more effective v.s. enslaving the natives, I presume because natives had the option of running away.

Like all costs the cost of guarding can internal or externally born. One point the paper makes is that unemployment acts as a kind of systemic guard. Obviously unemployment insurance acts to temper that effect. If incidences of unemployment tend to be short in duration, that also tempers the effect. The paper suggests that Italy, with high unemployment and low guard labor ratio, might be an example of an economy where the cost of guarding has been externalized. In this mindset taxing firms that tend to have high labor turn over is a Pigovian or pollution tax and helps to encourage the guarding to move in house where it will be on the books.

This posting about slavery is interesting to mix up with the guard labor meme. It’s all a bit rough but there are two rolls of the economic dice mentioned there that encourage the rise of slavery. Let’s decide that what we mean by slavery is state sanctioned and enforced slavery. Not that the other cases aren’t interesting.

The first scenario is the case where owners have land, but labor is scarce. The scarcity of labor means that the cost of owning slaves is lower than the cost of paying them a salary on the open labor market.

The second scenario is high demand for some good. I don’t entirely understand this suggestion; but i find it plausible. If I replace high demand with high volume it begins to make sense. If some labor intensive good is produced at very high volume an large industry will emerge and scaling effects will kick in. That will trigger the search for both the balance of guard to productive labor, the codification of process. In time the nature of the productive labor will become increasingly guarded. The guard labor ratio will rise – the absence of either automation, or technological schemes for assuring the productive labor adheres to the processes. In the extreme case that high ratio will lead to introducing slavery.

Of course you’d also need to be able to implement the bondage. So if the labor can run away, as in the early American colonies, it maybe a lot harder – even with the help of the state and cultural sanction and enforcement. Labor can also run away if you have a diverse economy; so it would seem to me that both these scenarios are much more likely and possibly even require homogeneity – a company town.

The first scenario suggest that in any case where labor becomes scarce the incidence of binding devices will rise. So when labor is scarce during the second world war and wages are capped employers introduce health insurance, which has turned out to be a very effective binding device. It is exaggerated to suggest most of these are equivalent to slavery, but it’s interesting to float the analogy.

Guard Labor

I’m reading, savoring actually, a fascinating essay  on “guard labor” i.e. people paid to enforce the rules upon others.  The TSA, those guys at the front desk of office buildings that check ID cards, the mall cops, the supervisors who’s only role is to be sure everybody keeps their nose to the grind stone, etc. etc.  To first order guard labor is unproductive labor.

One fascinating story in the essay is about canning.  Unsurprisingly cans used to be sealed by hand.  That labor was skilled and scarce; and so they could organize to demand high wages during the short but intensive periods when the crops flowed in and had to be canned before they spoiled.  Naturally the canners sought alternatives and inventors were happy to sell them machines that promised to seal the cans – converting a labor expense into a capital expense.  Interestingly the machines didn’t work but the canners still bought them.  Why?  Because they could use, as a threat, to negotiate lower wages.

Look at this amazing photograph of a sardine canning factory.
[René-Jacques5.jpg]

These are packers, not can sealers though.

There is another fascinating story about long haul truckers.  If you drive a truck, but you don’t pay for the gas, then you tend to drive faster so you can get the job done and go home.  That tiny detail shapes the trucking industry.  Owner operators (i.e. small businessmen) have a competitive advantage on long routes because they drive slower so their overall costs are lower.  Well, at least that used to be the case.  Once technology allowed the fleet owners to monitor the moment by moment trajectory of the truck they could automate the behavior.  A lot of owner-operators went out of business.

That is, in effect, the same story as all of franchising.  If you can create guards then you can roll up small businesses into a franchise chain.  The guards might be technology based (as with the tracking computers in the fleet’s trucks), or they might be tight process and procedures (as with six sigma or some currently popular team programming methodologies), or they might be done with guard labor.  In most cases you use a mix of all the above.

Like “coordination cost” the term “guard labor” (with it’s hint of unproductive and oppression) is a good tool to stuff in your tool kit.  Enjoy the paper  (pdf).

hat tip to mtravers!

Charts & Tea Leaves

Brad DeLong  posted this chart.  I’ll assume I understand this.

These lines show your annual return on a stock portfolio.  The pink line is the return on a portfolio held for a decade, and the blue is the return for two decades.  The pink line ends in 2000, if you had invested then and cashed 10 years later you’d have lost between 5% and 10% per year.  Nice work Republicans.  The blue line ends in 1990, and if you cash out now you’d make maybe 4% per year over those 20 years.
Stock brokers do not lie, the average for both curves indicates a positive return on average.  But they don’t tend to highlight how volatile the market it.  One two decades is a long time in a person’s life.  Some periods have been awful – 1910 was a bad time to buy and hold for a decade – as well as some wonderful ones, see 1950!
We don’t live forever, so if your playing the market for you retirement you might want to think about how many decades you’ll have to smooth out these bumps.
20100207 Shiller Da#23FC8FE.xls
This chart also shows four dips, or cycles, and so, of course, an obvious question is does this chart say “Buy Buy Buy!” or “Sell Sell Sell”?
It says sell if you think the last dip is predictive of what will happen this time.  Notice how happy you’d be if you’d cashed out in 1960, and how long you’d have wanted to stay on the sidelines.  Very U-shaped.
It says buy if you think the dip will be more like the other two.  Or, if you hold period is long enough to wait out the dip.
Of course all that presumes that this kind of chart analysis is actually meaningful; or put another way the underlying system has cycles and the there is something consistent about the system over a period of 150 years.  I find that a bit hard to believe.
I find it interesting that buying in 1930, 1931 to hold for a decade got you a pretty good return.

The Tale of the Traitorous Story

cat-traitorSometime ago I posted about a fun book on depression era “stamp scrip” a variant of local currency that, to hear tell, actually works. In that posting I quoted a story about the surprising amusing helpful role that a high velocity currency can play. Today I happened upon the same story again, but I was bemused that the story has been repurposed. I think it is fair to say that the original story’s purpose was to illustrate why we need more currency in circulation, while the new version appears to be arguing that you shouldn’t trust the currency system.  Apparently this story lacks much loyalty to either side in the debate.

Here are the two versions, first the older one:

Charles Zylstra, the enterprising man who first introduced Stamp Scrip to America (in a small western town) tells this story. A travelling salesman stopped at a hotel and handed the clerk a hundred dollar bill to be put in the safe, saying he would call for it in twenty-four hours. The clerk, whose name was A, owed $100 to B and clandestinely he used this bill for the liquidation of his debt, thinking that before the expiration of 24 hours he could collect $100 from his own debtor, whose name was Z. So this 100 dollar bill went to B, who, greatly surprised, used it to pay his own 100 dollar debt to one C, who (equally surprised) . . . and so on, and so on, all the way down to Z, who, with much pleasure, returned the bill to A, the clerk, who, in the morning, restored it to the salesman. And then did A, the clerk, stand petrified with horror to see the salesman light a cigar with it. “Counterfeit,” said the salesman, “a fake gift from a crazy friend, Abner; but he didn’t put it over, did he?”

Apparently they used to write in paragraphs, but the modernized version is done up in newspaper standard style; one sentence per paragraph.

It’s a slow day in a little east Texas town. The sun is beating  down, and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in  debt, and everybody lives on credit.

On this particular day a rich tourist from back east is driving  through town. He stops at the motel and lays a $100 bill on the desk  saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one  to spend the night.

As soon as the man walks upstairs, the owner grabs the bill and runs  next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

The butcher takes the $100 and runs down the street to retire his  debt to the pig farmer.

The pig farmer takes the $100 and heads off to pay his bill at the  supplier of feed and fuel.

The guy at the Farmer’s Co-op takes the $100 and runs to pay his  debt to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times
and has had to offer her “services” on credit.

The hooker rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the  hotel owner.

The hotel proprietor then places the $100 back on the counter so the  rich traveler will not suspect anything.

At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, picks up the $100  bill, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money,  and leaves town.

No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now out of debt and now looks to the future with a lot more optimism.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the United States of America Government is conducting business today.

It’s fun to think about all the little changes.  Things happen faster these days, for example.  I like the addition of weather. And a prostitute!  How liberated.

Income Inequality

Some nice illustration of income inequality pulled together at Visualizing Economics.  For example this shows a fine grain map of US income inequality.  Oh I’d love to see a video of that over time!

us_income_inequal_5_15_2006

Or this scatter plot nations showing the height of inequality v.s. their per-capital GDP.  The US, an outlier, is highlighted.

GDPCapitaVSGini

Lots of thought provoking stuff over there, for example this fine grain map what real estate is productive.  I wish this was GDP/capital.

sachs-gdpdensity

The original sources can be found in the postings I pulled these from; though sadly many of the links are broken.