Monthly Archives: January 2004

Collective Efficacy

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Felton Earls’ term for the single most important determinant of a neighborhood’s violent crime rate is “Collective Efficacy:” “Trust, reciprocity, and a willingness among people to look out for one another.”

“Our national ideology gets spun off in the direction of individualism,” says Earls. “But maybe the survival of our country demands that we balance that strong ethic with the admission that we’re in it together.”

It’s nice when $50+ Million of public health research returns something that’s solidly useful (example article: Science (pdf)}. “It is far and away the most important [crime] research insight in the last decade,” said Jeremy Travis, director of the National Institute of Justice from 1994 to 2000. “I think it will shape policy for the next generation.”

This same research program has finally shown the Broken Windows to be just a bunch of fuzzy thinking. Broken Windows was a very popular hypothisis that crime arises from disorder; for example the unrepaired broken window. It’s popular with authoritarians since it licenses them to demand that other people clean their desks and gives them an excuse to arrest the shabby or homeless. It confounds cause and effect.

This nice peice of research (pdf) both fails to substantiate the silly idea but also demonstrates that collective efficacy is a much more valuable predictive variable. Meanwhile the research is delightful because they collected so much data so very carefully.

(See also this:NY Time’s Article).

Television

Catagories are a kind of precursor for violence. In Tilly’s book about violence he enumerates three precursors for violence one of which is to invent catagories. All three means are used sharpen the boundry between groups. Before you can get Canadians to fight with each other you have to sharpen up a catagorical division. What to start a fight? Invent a category, say French Canadians.

You can see Dave Winer playing this game when he writes:

Sifry must think weblogs are like television. Shirky sure does. What is it about people with two-syllable names that begin with S and end with Y. I think I’m going to publish a law about this and go on the speaker’s circuit.

I’m willing to give Dave the benefit of the doubt that he’s only trying to be cute when he does that. Given my last name and Dave’s last name I think I can say that it’s a tacky ploy. That cute device obscures what is a more important dispute. He writes:

You know what’s always bothered me about Technorati? I don’t care about millions of blogs. I’m going for quality not quantity. Sifry must think weblogs are like television. Shirky sure does.

Is the blogging universe “like television”?

Dave attempts to dismiss the question by framing it as obviously false. But is it? The presumption in his statement is, of course not. I can be cute too: Dave’s the man that brought us a product call Radio.

The real question in dispute here is about concentration of power (or wealth). What the power-law distributions in blog linking and traffic suggest is that even with an architecture that is peer to peer (one that doesn’t treat the distribution channel as a scarce resource) you still get extremely high concentrations of power.

The few to many audience topology found in the 20th century broadcast media is emerging in the 21st century peer-to-peer media! We certainly didn’t see that comming! But denial is a mistake. Our presumption was that a peer-to-peer network architecture would assure an highly egalitarian outcome. Compelling data to the contrary makes clinging to that optomistic bit of logic a mistake. A dangerous mistake.

This is the arguement at hand. One side, the power-law fans, have noticed that what we want is not what we are getting. That side thinks we should be worried. The other side – the build it right and we won’t need no stinking regulatations side – is sticking to it’s design principles; if not it’s goals.

I’m in the first camp. So, I think the otherside is mostly engaging in denial and minimization. While I think the design principles are good, their outcome seems quite unfortunate. We need to think deeply about why, and what to do next.

One last point. Dave’s Scripting News is #15 on technorati. Does anybody think that’s because Dave’s got the one of the best blogs on the entire planet? It is beyond ironic to realize that Dave has become a vested interest. “I don’t care about millions of blogs.” Who’s the television now?

This could be big!

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The user gives commands by pointing the cursor at graphic symbols on the screen, such as a paint brush and an eraser to enable the user to draw a picture, or a trash can to destroy a document.

Because the machine now has one drive and 128K of RAM, several sources said users might have to “swap” diskettes in order to move information from one program to another.

The user also will be able to divide the screen into a variety of compartments, or “windows,” that each can be used to perform different jobs. For example, the user could be writing a letter on one part of the screen, then create a window and begin another.

Within the next few months, Microsoft Inc., a Bellvue, Wash. software publisher closely allied with IBM, is scheduled to introduce a spreadsheet package for making financial projections, a graphing package and the Basic programming language.

    — San Jose Mercury News

Each Apple dealer got three. They all sold out immediately. I got mine at a boating electronics store. The boot blocks were layed out on the disk so that it played a little tune as it booted. The audio was stored in gaps in the display’s RAM. Microsoft never did ship that Basic implementation, but they did force Apple not to ship the one they had ready to go at launch. The 128K!

Panacea: Hell for rent

“The reign of tears is over. The slums will soon be a memory. We will
turn our prisons into factories and our jails into storehouses and
corncribs. Men will walk upright now, women will smile and children will
laugh. Hell will be forever for rent.”

    – Reverend Billy Sunday on the Prohibition

Links dejour

Photoshop Tatoos – Hehe, the media office at BYU decided to hide the tatoos on their basketball players.

Longhorn – Good reasonably short overview of longhorn by a VC.

I’m Above Average (pdf) – An amusing essay about the puzzle presented by reading the liturature that shows that people tend to rate themselves above average. Given that knowledge how do you adjust your own self evaluation? If depressed people have less of problem with this are faced with a choice between being depressed and being accurate, etc.

Columbia Report – Murder! We apparently learned nothing from the Challenger Report. Kafka!

Normal Accidents – One of the best books on how hard it is to build high reliablity systems in some situations.

Future of Shopping – Neat fash demo of a tool that helps search the universe of cameras.

Why Big Fierce Animals are Rare

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“It is as important to be of a size that does not fit in someone else’s mouth as it is to have a mouth suited to the size of one’s own prey.”

I can not too highly recomend Paul A. Colinvaux’s classic book “Why Big Fierce Animals are Rare.” I learned dozens of deep important things from that book; for example why the ocean is a desert.

The big fierce animal’s problem is two fold. He sits on top of a complex food web, a pyramid. It takes a big base on that pyramid for a few animals to sit on top. His second problem is wounds. He can’t take the risk of attacking anything that might wound him; since once wounded infection will do him in. For this reason preditors tend work very hard to avoid taking any risks when getting their prey.

Apparently if you plot the size of various species in a food web you notice that they are arranged in a stepwise manner. The species in any given layer in the web are sized so that they can pop their food, i.e. the next layer down in the web, quickly into their mouths.

Once you start looking at the world this way it can get quite amusing. Snakes and whales are extreme examples of ways of solving this problem. After reading the book I was very amused to notice how the foods in the grocery store have all adapted to fit easily into my mouth.

There was a time when strawberries were shaped to fit into the mouth of a sparrow. That sparrow would then complement the strawberry by planting it’s seeds in a distant location, complete with a little fertilizer. No wonder fruits are a diuretic. These days strawberries fit into the house wife’s mouth. Strawberry farmers fill in for the sparrows.

One model for the species-area relationship mentioned earlier  that is is a side effect of food webs. The depth and breadth of a food web defines how many species a ecology can support and the larger area an ecology is the larger the web it can encompass.

These days I’m finding it interesting to note how there are some rules, like the mouth size rule, that create layering in a network. Which leads to questions like: are there similar ordering effects in social networks, or economic networks. What does this tell us about the striving of computer system architects to layer their systems?

Some species are generalists; i.e. omnivores, and they tend to undercut this model. A species that can eat off different layers in the food web takes energy that might support some more specialized species. In  the business ecology we  call such things Microsoft.

“What the hell are you leaving us?” Chad Waite, OVP – via Mark Tobias.

More Links

Worse Mistake – Jarred Diamond opines that agriculture was a lousy deal for most of the population, but good for the elites. I think “Diamond” is a great example of a high signal value name.

Top Ten Lists – Is there anything more elite? … “The publication of multiple ten-best lists is probably a well-intentioned effort to embrace the principle of pluralism…”

Conservatives – A nice description of what a conservative is. I’d note though that this is not the same as what the right wing in American politics is, or at least it’s not what the VoteView model calculates it to be. “Say” and “Do” are often different like that.

Social Network Visualization – Spiffy! via Overstated.

Big Bang!

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Group forming! Planet Apache joins the universe. I predict a group blog forming website startup before night fall.

Looks like mr. planet needs to get to know mr. tidy.

I’m in western Massachusett’s this morning. Tonight we are forecast to get -20F (-29C). ek!

Clay Shirky on Powerlaws

Clay writes a excellent overview of some of the means for engineering the shape of the power-law curve. It’s nice to see another voice talking about that problem rather than just railing about the meer existance of the curve.

While I have a few minor quibbles with Clay’s posting I’m so pleased!. For example I’m pleased by his collection of examples of mechanisms people use to try and reshape the curve. A large collection of such mechanisms is key to informing a strong intuition about what you can do to fix extreme cases or inequality, failed growth, polarization, etc. One scale free network is not like another.

He misses the issue of how network design biases who will capture the new growth in the network – some designs encourage the emergence of a more egalitarian distribution.

He touches on the issue of volitility. This is a two edged sword; you want stablity – since network participants pay a cost to reshuffle the network – and you want moblity/oportunity. I believe, but I don’t have enough data or a reasonably model that the distribution of volitility in most of these networks is similar to that found in the distribution of firm sizes from year to year. Small firms change size a _lot_ more than large firms – it’s a double expodential. If that’s the right distribution for the volitility then the design problem is to manage the constants in that distirbution.

He provocatively introduces the idea that conservatives have a tolerance for inequality. I think that’s far too generous. I think that conservatives have an enthusiasm for inequality. That they believe that elite status is the rightous reward rather than a happen stance of system design. That a more severe slope to your power-law curve will drive people to increased striving and they are blind to the extent that a more egalitarian slope enables innovation, creation, diversity, and reduced social tension. Since what happens if you encourage diversity is the emergence of many many loosely joined power-law networks sorted out by different arts there is a deadly tendency of conservatives to encourage competititon between these arts that leads to a monotheistic world with a single dominate network and ranking.

That in turn brings me to the information issue. I wish Clay had mentioned that one way to reduce the slope of the curve is to improve the information available to the network members. That encourages members to link to things that are more diverse. I.e. the habit of linking to the “more popular blogs” is less egalitarian than the habit of linking to the “most popular blogs that discuss my interests.” You can’t do the latter if you don’t have good information.

There is a meta issue, like the one about how many networks you think exist about the size of your network/community. If you regulate your network; by increasing the information, innovation, limiting it’s upper or lower bounds, etc. etc. that implies you have drawn a boundry around it. That you have converted it from a public-good into a club-good. That you have given it a cell membrane. You can do that with pricing, certification, etc. etc. You can’t ignore these membranes.

I was surprised that he doesn’t use the word innovation, he has before, to talk about one of the goals of your network design.

Free Revealing

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The image on the right is a fragment from an ad that  O’Reilly  runs.

One of the reasons you want smart friends is that they can put a bee in your bonnet that  gets  stuck there for a long time.

Eric von Hippel has done that to me at least twice now. First asking how Open Source solves the coordination problem, and second asking why Open Source developers “freely reveal” (their innovations).

Of course what the bees do once they are in my head is entirely out of the control of the friends that stick them in there.

So I’ve begun making a list that attempts to accumulate why people do and don’t reveal. Why does the young woman reveal her belly button? Why does the coworker say “How’s it going?” It’s a very amusing topic.

Here are just a few reasons why people don’t reveal.

  • Fear of  embarrassment, or reputation damage. “Familiarity  breeds  contempt.”
  • Fear of gaining a reputation as having loose lips.
  • Fear of seeming weak or desperate as you reveal and those around you don’t.
  • Fear of seeming  naive  and child like exhibiting  unwarranted  trust in others.
  • Fear of appear to be a gossip, and hence a member of a social clique of similar people.
  • Fear that you’ll hurt others
  • Fear that you might reveal what is a valuable secret to another in your one of your communities and hence be shunned by that community.
  • Fear of loosing the trade secret advantages the knowledge enables.
  • Confusion that ideas are like physical property – if you give away an apple you can’t eat it.
  • Cost of translating the ideas into something your audience will understand.
  • Cost of finding an audience, i.e. distribution costs
  • Fear that revealing will create a “relationship” you have to maintain over time.

After a while it’s not clear why anybody would reveal anything.  This helps to explain people’s  bewilderment when they encounter free revealing on the net, for example blogging or open source.  The blogging case is particularly curious since the audience you reach is large so the chance of one of those risks kicking off is higher.

But, as my son pointed out, all these reasons have their inverse that can be framed as a positive.