Monthly Archives: March 2003

Trust & Neocons

I’m reading Francis Fukuyama’s book Trust. He argues that a culture’s ablity to support spontainous sociablity and hence form numerous overlapping organizations with is key to lowering transaction costs and creating economic vitality.

He spends a lot of time on various national and religious cultural frameworks; contrasting them with that model. Here, for example, is a list of attributes of that appear to be lifted from Weber’s The Protestant Ethic

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Max Weber
  • hard work
  • frugality
  • rationality
  • innovativeness
  • openness
  • honesty
  • reliablity
  • cooperativeness
  • sense of duty to others
  • the capacity to cohere in new communtities
  • service

I was struck by how few of these I would be tempted to ascribe to the neocons. Curious.

He has something very interesting to say about “family values”. He argues that countries with extremely family centric ethical frameworks (for example in Confucism family loyality trumps all other kinds) tend to have very few organizations that exist outside of the family circle. In such nations the demand for such intermediate organizations must be met by the federal government.

He makes an interesting point about totalitarian regimes, like the Communists or the French monarcy, where they view all other organisations as competitors and labor to wipe them out. That reminded me of a similar pattern in religious cults that treat anything outside the cult (family, job, thoughts, etc.) as a competitor that to be suppressed.

In turn that got me thinking about how hard that is in a world with lots and lots of communications channels. Why you’d practically need a war to get people not to notice that the Bush tax cuts are making good progress thru the congress, or that there were tornados recently in the Southern United States.

back from the brink

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Some good news.: “He was a mere 1.5 metres from the brink of the falls.”

“He could have reached out and touched the brink of the falls with his hand,” said John Jacoby, battalion chief of the Niagara Falls Fire Department.

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Maybe he was decided the time had come to move to Canada?

Some people this happens to are fools.

Some people are just plain crazy and do this on purpose.

Some people even survive to tell their story, including audio recordings from inside the barrel.

Over the last few years a number of people attempting to cross the border
from Canada have decided to swim across the river down stream from the falls. Unaware that the currents are incredibly strong and violent they are drawn underwater and drowned.

queen for a day

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There is an amazing moral dilemma hidden in the text of Richard Layard’s lectures on economics and happiness.

If you are evil, he outlines a reasonably simple reciepe you can use to make a large groups of people unhappy. The  trick is to engineer a change in their model of their rank.  This is easier to do than you might expect.    You breakdown the barriers around their local community joining them to a larger community, but only if that larger community is better off than they are.

He tell the story of the East Germans. In the last decade and a half they have been set free from a horrible Governmen, for example it arranged for everybody to spy on each other.    Their incomes have been risen substantially.  This is obviously wonderful.  But then, why are they collectively less happy?  Apparently it’s because they now calibrate themselves against the West Germans.  Their perceived rank has fallen in spite of their absolute rank having rising significantly.

What a mess!  You do the obviously right thing; free an entire nation of people and pour tremendous amounts of energy into raising their standard of living and after a long period the end result is an overall decrease in the happiness of the very people you set out to help. At that point your only hope is to start to calculate some other score; maybe one where justice can counter the decrease in unhappiness. What a mess!

This problem is far more common than it appears at first. He reports the same story for holds true for many women in industrial nations who now compare their rank against that of men. Or, he reports, that watching television with pictures of beautiful people living rich lives causes people to start contrasting their rank with the people in those images (fictional people!) and this makes them unhappy.

If you are really evil – get a satellite television station. Beam images of first world life styles into the homes of third world citizens.

People say of the third world’s anger “What’s their problem?” Maybe it’s not our cultural imperialism. Maybe it’s not the way our media is full of violence, or loose morals. Maybe it’s not the destructive effects our culture has on local culturals, persay.

It could be entirely that our media erodes the boundary around their local frames of reference and in doing so it implicitly suggests that their rank is lower than ours. That doesn’t trigger a desire to strive; it only triggers a sense of unhappiness, frustration and worse.

You might make this argument not just between the first and third world, but between the urban and rural cultures or (between rich and poor) inside the first world.

All that got me to thinking – could you use these insights to make people happier. I think you might argue that the old TV show ‘Queen for a Day’ is an example of TV that made people happy. Queen for a Day ran for 25 years, each show would share with it’s audience two contestants who’s lives were mind boggling awful – the grinding poverty of recent widows who’s small children were suffering some crippling affliction. These stories gave the audience a point of reference that could only raise their self assessment of their rank in the world.

I recall traveling in Ireland many years ago where on the TV I saw documentaries about an awful place I was entirely unfamiliar with. This place went by the name America. These shows certainly did seem to cheer up all the Irish folks who were watching them.

But the most fascinating insight is that if you want to be a more cheerful person the answer is simple. Work to help those less fortunate than yourself.

Done right, this is a win all around. First the very poor gain substantial happiness from each and every improvement in their material condition. Those of us who are quite well off gain very little happiness from increases in our material well being. Second by associating with those who are less well off we recalibrate where we stand in the overall ranking of things. And that will make you happier!

Good news indeed; as long as in doing it you don’t create more unhappiness as in the West German example.

Love it or leave it!

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In the early 1970s as we pulled out of Vietnam, Richard Nixon went insane in the whitehouse, and Albert O. Hirshman wrote an facinating short book called Exit, Voice and Loyality: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations and States.

Hirshman, an economist, noticed that members of an organization have three broad choices about how to respond when the organization goes into decline.

  • Exit – They can leave.
  • Voice – They can argue for change.
  • Loyality – They can remain silent and loyal.

Different situations demand different mixes of these three. One is far more likely to use voice and loyality to tackle a problem at home, say with your children. In the marketplace, particularly the markets of classical economics, the bias is toward using exit. Don’t like the TV show you’re watching? Change the channel.

I’m sure that recently many of us have wished we could change the channel and stop watching the war show. Politics is not the marketplace, it’s where you live.

Yesterday I listened on the radio to the impassioned plea of a man that now was a time for the nation to draw together. A time for loyality to our troups, to our President. A time for solidarity against the threat our nation faces. A threat that 9/11 so vividly illuminated.

Hirshman points out that there are situations where exit becomes extremely difficult – citizenship for example – and where then only voice and loyality remain as choices. He goes on to point out that in some such situations – criminal gangs, totalitarian regimes for example – voice maybe eliminated entirely.

Yesterday a number of people spoke out against today’s war, and a number of other people told them to shut up. When exit isn’t an option telling people to shut up is a very dangerous move.

It is thinking like this that leads: to loyality tests, to paranoia about outsiders, to interment camps.

Here’s a perfect example of how that reflex uncoils. The other day Richard Perle, one of the leaders of the neoconservative movement that advocates kicking some butt to make the world a better place called a famous and respected reporter a terrorist because he wrote an article pointing out some linkages between Perle’s business dealings and wealthy Saudi businessmen.

Or consider what the president said in during his only recent press conference speaking first about Mexico not getting onboard with the his war plans: “I don’t expect there to be significant retribution from the government (what’s significant?), but there might be a reaction like the interesting phenomena taking place here in America about the French, a backlash against the French, not stirred up by anybody except the people.” For those who oppose the United States, “there will be a certain sense of discipline.”

This kind of “your loyal or you’re out” is a big stick to pull out when people can’t exit. Mexico isn’t able to stop being our neighbor. The American population of people who look a bit like they might have come from Mexico can’t all up and leave. And here we find our President threating them all with “discipline”? It is offensive.

Those who are leading us into war are playing the loyality card. They are playing it to silence the voices of the rest of us. They should be more careful. They should be ashamed.

#1 is Happy, #2…

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Happiness is not like ice cream. When I eat a spoonful of ice cream from the quart in the fridge I’m taking that spoonful away from the rest of my family. Happiness isn’t like that, if I’m a bit more happy it doesn’t follow that the rest of my family is denied some happiness.

Economists, who like most scientists would rather make up complex terms than steal ice cream from their children, have a term for that. Ice cream is a rival good, and happiness as a non-rival good.

Men are very clever at converting non-rival goods into rival goods. I figure this is because they spent years locked sibling rivalry. “I’m taller than you.” “Oh, yeah, well I’m thinner.” “So, what’s so great about thin!”

I gather that those clever scientists have discovered that people like to win! Amazing huh? People like it when they are top dog. Apparently these scientists didn’t stop there. Nope. They also discovered that people don’t like being losers.

I find it fascinating to realize that if you take a group of people and rank them then you make a few winners happy, and you make the entire rest of the group unhappy. Scientists have shown that it’s true! Some people have called this the “polution” of success, a provocative metaphore eh?

I assume that the guy above is pretty happy about that bubble. Obviously he’s might high rank in the world of bubbles. Probably doesn’t know much about weft twining though – what a loser!

So your happiness (a non-rival good) can be effected by your rank (a rival good). Which is probably a good thing. At least, it causes you to strive toward bigger and better. Scientists support that, particularly Darwin I presume.

There is an unpredictable bit though. What domain do you pick to engage in this rivalry? If any. How about … Best flower garden in the neighborhood? Daughter with the best manners? You have a lot of control over your own happiness if you can selecting something with minimal rivalry. You could be the guy on the baseball team that always shows up on time and drives everybody to the bar afterward. That’s what makes teams thrive.

In fact it’s well known that the quickest way to lay waste to team work is to publish everybody’s salary.

My evil sons, upon hearing these ideas, immediately put them to work attempting to make each other unhappy.

Clearly they set their sights to low. You can make entire populations of people unhappy using by ranking them. For example we give everybody a standardized test. Like the SAT. We would need a name for this. Accountability sounds good.

The twits in this world that strive to get to the top of the heap are frustrated in two ways. Because happiness is nonrival you can take it from one person and give it to another. So if you make a lot of people unhappy you can’t bank the happiness you took from them. You will get to have a bit of pleasure in improving your rank; but even that’s a mixed blessing. Once you have achieved a high rank you also get a bundle of anxiety with the role. Since high ranks are very scarce, i.e. rival, your have to worry all the time that your bubble with burst.

key question

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“What few things need to be the same so that everything else can be different?”

              - Michael Tiemann, CTO of Redhat

Boy does that go to the heart of the standardization/hub/network-effect problem in short order. While it is a good question from a public-good point of view, from a private-good/capitalist point of view the more likely question is “What things can be …”

Stuff Addiction

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Something that makes me happy is to observe the process by which science proves the patently obvious, and then beats it up with a large club until it gives up just a bit more information so you will leave it alone and go home.

I gather that scientists have discovered that stuff make makes us happy. You will probably not be surprised to hear that lots of people think that new toaster, house, car, job, wife or baby will make us happy. Well you will be greatly comforted to know that – sure enought it does. So all is right with the world… or is it?

Well no. Apparently we are a cheerful lot and we suffer from excessive optomism. It appears that we overestimate just how how long we will be made happy by the stuff we crave. Even Proffessors discover that the tenure doesn’t make them as happy for as long as they had expected. Children discover the christmas toys grow dull before January passes. This makes me sad. What to do?

Buy more stuff!

What we have here folks is an behaviorist loop! Wired into our souls, a striving to get more stuff. It’s an addiction, and we can roll out the usual treatments.

Sin taxes! Packrats anonymous. Get ahold of your selves people, take a look in the mirror. Careful calculation of the net present value before investing – that’s the ticket!

Is all that stuff really making us happy?

Maybe not. It appears that inspite of tremendous increases in wealth over the last 50 years most of the industrialized world is somewhat less happy.

I don’t care! I still want that toaster!