Category Archives: politics

Causes of Concern

It is a very strange and disturbing time, isn’t it?

Here in Massachusetts we have a Republican running for governor who’s campaign is largely funded by her spouse. They live in this amazingly wealthy neighborhood in a house on the ocean north of Boston. His company is a few miles from the house, making for a pleasant commute. Which is all fine; but for the detail that the state’s economic development program helped pay for the villa his company’s in. Seems that the Republican administrators of the program decided that this delightful neighborhood, one of the richest in the state and possibly the country, was a economically depressed. Well I guess that’s what business friendly Republicans do.

And then we have this guy Allen in Virginia, running for Senate. He stuffed deer’s heads into the the mailboxes of black people, or niggers as he called them for years. After months of stories like that coming out about this guy he’s running neck and neck against his opponent. What’s up with people in Virginia?

I have often joked, but now I am afraid, that what globalization would bring to us was South American governance, i.e. where when countries go bad people of the opposition just disappear never to be seen again. The right to demand that a court review the why somebody has been tossed in prison, it’s what 400, 600 years old? Our elected officials, here in the US, recently set that aside. The president or his minions now have the power to disappear us.

Consider this story in the Times today. Guy happens on the vice president in the street. Tells him that he thinks the Iraq policy is reprehensible. Can you guess what happens next? Yup, the secret service tossed him in jail.

Why exactly do we fear terrorist more than this? Why do we fear terrorist more than people who would, apparently without shame, write laws that retroactively say that their torturing people is legal. Why do we fear terrorists more than people who would make torture legal?

And then you have the announcement that Rice, who’s now secretary of state, was fully briefed on the Al Queda threat in July 2001, months before 9/11. She was told on a scale of 1-10 this threat was a 10, that something had to be done. She did nothing. Which is news. It’s deeply troubling. But it’s part of a pattern that was already clear. The administration just didn’t care. Didn’t care to learn how care about this kind of issue.

So while that’s horrible I’m more bewildered that it appears the 9/11 commission knew about that briefing and left it out of their report. Huh? I know that the commissions report was horribly partisan, but really this is over the top. How exactly can we trust anything in the report at this point. What else got left on the cutting room floor?

Of course Rice handled the news like any bad PR problem. First pretended that meeting didn’t happen, then that she couldn’t remember it, and then finally her staff admitted it did happen. Hope thru out, I presume, that it might blow over.

II guess it did blow over.
Now we have a new circus. A congressman who’s been chasing underage boys around the capital building for years. The good news, for him, is that the Scientologists are old friends of his, so he’s hiding in one of their ‘rehab centers.’ He’s got some excuses. Blame those Catholic priests. Though people say he doesn’t drink he’s also blamed on the drink. You’d think given that he’s got millions of bucks he could get a better crisis manager to handle his PR.

Of course the real story there is that if you’re a viciously unethical political party boss, then a rich closet gay pedophile makes a great lieutenant. No risk he’s not going to follow orders! So now we have the small amusement of watching the party captains skitter like roaches under the fridge when the lights come on.

What’s wrong with this country? It still it isn’t clear that the Republicans will be shown the door in the upcoming election. How can any citizen vote for any of these people? This really bewilders me. More so, it terrifies me.

Slicing and Dicing the Senate

Below are two syncronized animated charts. The file containing them is large, a half a Meg (sorry about that).

Each point on the charts represents one US Senator; they don’t move. The idea of this technique, “Optimal Classification Estimates”, is to reduce each legislator to two numbers and them pin them onto that graph. It’s extremely reductionist, but it works. The lines slicing thru the chart illustrate how voting proceeds on various bills. A line running from top to bottom reveals that a bill was decided largely on economic issues; while a line running left to right is a bill that was decided on social issues. The democrats on the left are economically liberal, i.e. they tend to look out for the weaker and more numerous economic actors. The Republicans on the right are economically conservative; look after the economically large, but few.

The chart on the right shows how well the model works. The hand full of points shown are Senators who votes didn’t fit the model.

I grab’d that chart from here.

The model is extremely accurate; around 95% these days. Amazingly you don’t actually need two axis; you will get 90% accuracy with a single axis that runs almost top to bottom, but slices slightly at an angle. You can see the entire Senate sorted into that ordering here. For example Joe Liberman isn’t the most conservative democratic Senator, there are a handful who are more to the right than he is.

I’ve writen about this model before; and I keep coming back to it because it totally changed the way I think about politics. It’s all economic; all the noise about social issues never actually flows thru into the legislative agenda.

If you download the chart and stick it into the right program (Quicktime player works for me) you can single step thru the votes. You can then go look up particular votes. That facinating because the topic of a bill may appear to be along one dimension but the vote shows clearly that it was entirely decided by another dimension. For example, the votes around now failed plan to create a guest worker program are a good example of social and economic conservative issues playing off against each other.

Decay, Rust, Terror

Actual gorrilla mask worn by global guerrillas!Why do I keep expecting John Robb to point out that rust is yet another example that validates his global guerrillas model of where the world is headed? What distructive force is further out on the long tail of bad actors? The ultimate in fire power rust coordinates it’s actions thru a swarm based attack. Does not metal’s primary loyality for oxygen illustrate the inevitability of states losing their monopoly on power? Surely corrosion’s vile attack on the Prudhoe Bay pipeline is yet another sign: our economic system is just a long line of fat sitting ducks? And, yet again we see our over muscular military totally unprepared to deal with the real threats we now face in this post super-power globalized economy!

This just in: rust now teaming with sludge!

Tar Baby

I don’t like my Governor, Mitt Romney. And I think people who use the word niggardly just because its linguistic roots happen to be independent of the word nigger are obnoxious insensitive pedants. That said, I’m sad to see that there are some members of the black community who feel the term tar-baby is offensive to their community. The folklore wherein the tar-baby appears is an excellent story full of wisdom. It would be a shame to lose the lessons it teaches. One of which just happens to be how the weak minority can bring down the clever and powerful.

Polarization and Paralysis

Here’s another interesting point from Polarized America.

When your designing your governance scheme one of the levers you can adjust is how much consensus is required before it’s possible to make major changes to the rules. For example here in the US it’s is very tedious to change the constitution. Another example is the Senate’s rules that make it impossible for a contentious issues to pass with a slim majority. There are lots and lots of these schemes; for example all the checks and balances built into the system.

So it’s no surprise that if the nation becomes polarized then the Congress becomes is paralyzed. That’s how the system was designed and it’s one of the patterns the authors of Polarized America illustrate that with data.

So then what happens? A few things. The two sides in the argument trash around looking for other means to achieve their goals. This model has something to say about the president’s repeated efforts (largely successful) to expand the power of the executive branch. This thrashing around attempting to find alternate ways get control of the government’s power is inherently dangerous because they skirt the boundaries of what is legal. The frustration of polarization creates an emotional climate where the political actors can self justify falling off the edge.

Because many of the programs that are designed to temper the concentration of wealth (i.e. programs that redistribute wealth) like the minimum wage, social services, education funding, health care funding, are not indexed to inflation this paralysis has the side effect of eroding their effect. Since this time around the primary poles of the division are about wealth that reinforces the polarization.

One notable thing about the models underlying Polarized America is the counter intuitive result that when you look at the actual votes in congress the social conservative dimension is a extremely weak predictor compared to the economic one. That’s counter intuitive because most of the rhetoric about American politics is about ethical and moral issues; e.g. stem cells, minor rights (race, gay, women), and the degree of separation between secular and religious institutions.

That too can be explained by this the realization that the architecture of our government means that a polarized you can’t make major changes.

The irony here is that the architecture is probably protecting the right from getting tossed out on its ear. The data is clear. The electorate has broad deep support for the redistribution programs that temper the corrosive effect of concentrated wealth. They also are an extremely tolerant bunch with little interest in the socal-right’s conservative agenda. The architecture has allowed the right to avoid the blame for eroding the redistribution schemes of economic liberals, and prevented them from the most socially conservative acts.

Conventional Wisdom or Propaganda?

It is conventional to sing the praises of private schools while dismissing public schools as yet another example of Government’s ineffective nature. That rhetoric is part of the Republican campaign to undermine voter confidence in state based solutions. It’s a natural outgrowth of the Republican party’s real goal: to lower taxes and increase wealth disparity. You can’t achieve that goal if most of the public likes the services the government provides; i.e. health, transportation, safety, education.

So it’s with some amusement that I read this item from the New York Times.


WASHINGTON, July 14 – The Education Department reported on Friday that children in public schools generally performed as well or better in reading and mathematics than comparable children in private schools. The exception was in eighth-grade reading, where the private school counterparts fared better.

The report, which compared fourth- and eighth-grade reading and math scores in 2003 from nearly 7,000 public schools and ore than 530 private schools, found that fourth graders attending public school did significantly better in math than comparable fourth graders in private schools. Additionally, it found that students in conservative Christian schools lagged significantly behind their counterparts in public schools on eighth-grade math.

Conventional wisdom is wrong it is just Republican Propaganda. Public schools may not be as good as we’d like, but private schools aren’t any better.

Polarized America

I’ve been awaiting this book for months; and I finally got a copy. Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches by Nolan McCarty, Keith T. Poole, and Howard Rosenthal. I paid full price, which is both totally out of character and an indication of how very important I think this book is, but you don’t have to.

This book’s big picture is that very key statistics have all move near lock step very rapidly over the last 25 years in: income distribution, political polarization, percentage foriegn born, declining local government services, and others. These are connected in a complex dance.

Here’s something I didn’t realize. While the Republican party has been moving rapidly right; the Democratic party has on the one hand abandoned their advocacy of general welfare platforms and shifted toward a what they notably refer to as issues of ascription. These are direct decendents of the civil rights movement. These are issues about ascriptive characteristics (race, gender, sexual preference) of individuals. We should reclaim the general welfare issues!

Is this true?

So here’s a bit of hearsay.

First some background. Flex fuel cars are cars that can run on either petrol or so called E85. E85 is a fuel made with 85% ethanol and 15% regular petrol. The big picture reason to find E85 cars interesting is that they offer the potential to transition the installed base of autos from a oil based supply chain into a bio-fuel based one. The hope is that we can find a means to produce bio-fuels at reasonable price points. Setting aside my doubts about how hopeful that is I recently came upon this bit-of-info. I wonder if it’s are true.

Now the depressing rumor. The feds relaxed the fuel efficency requirements (the so called CAFE standards) for these cars as follows. In effect they decided that only the consumption of petrol would count in the ratings. So if the manufacture could make the case that 100% of his cars were using E85 rather then petrol he could calculate his miles/gallon based on the 15% of the fuel that was petrol. So rather than say 20miles/gallon he could claim about 120miles/gallon. Of course the presentage of of ethanol burnt wouldn’t be 100% but more like 20%; but that’s enough to provide a significant uptick in the CAFE numbers. For some car models, and for GM most of their models, this uptick is desperately needed. Otherwise they would have had to pay fines.

Just as an aside E85 isn’t as energy dense, about 30% less, as regular petrol, so it doesn’t get as good milage per gallon. One can only hope that’s reflected in the price at the pump.

We desperately need an exit strategy from the oil based transportation economy. Migrating that vast installed base is not going to be easy. E85 is one of the few scenarios out there that seems even slightly plausable. If the above is true it’s a shame. Since it suggests that GM’s only reason for advocating flex fuel cars was to avoid the tightening of the CAFE standards. Tightening the CAFE standards is, of course, about forcing the migration. So, if this is true it certainly taints the motives behind GM’s marketing campaign for it’s flex fuel vechiles.

Update:

Here’s an article about the so called Flex-Fuel Loophole.

The dual-fuel credit creates a stark difference. A flex-fuel 2005 Chrysler Sebring was rated at nearly 46 miles per gallon for the purposes of the federal mileage standards. Its actual miles per gallon running on conventional gasoline in a government test: Less than 28.

Pool

The Boston Globe has a story this morning about MIT students who have trouble graduating due to the University’s insistance on a swim test as part of their graduating requirements. Meanwhile this weekend I chatted with a woman who taught art history at MIT and reported that it was a regular occurance in her classes that not one of the students had ever set foot in a mueseum.

It makes me wonder how many people appreciate what a forced march of achievement some parents put their offspring thru? How many of the students at top teir universities are at the end of these gauntlets? It’s very odd, and I see it as deeply disfunctional.

I sometimes joke when people say I have good children that it’s easy if you know the trick. The trick is to have a diverse portfolio. Have a lot of kids. Discard the lousy ones. As s an added bonus the culling has the positive of side effect of incentivizing the survivors.

While that’s a horrible joke it used be common practice. In traditional scarcity based economies parents would pass all their estate onto only one of their children. In a society where power arises from capital, and the returns are disproportionately skewed so that those with more capital are significantly more powerful than those with less a tradition of primogenitor, is totally rational.

While the universities bear some of the responsiblity for encouraing the forced march child rearing so common these days (as does the fetish for high stakes test based assesment) is the unbelievable network effects that rebound on those at the top of the pile is the central problem. Regresive taxation, increasing concentration of wealth, the privitization of all club goods, makes the loveless behavior of these parents totally rational.

Flensing

Somebody wrote recently of the current situation that irony has lost it’s ablity to comfort; and then we have this example of what happens when you get real sarcasm. Nothing but nervious pained laughter has he slowly peels the skin from his audience.

That is a video, the president is sitting to the speaker’s right. In front of him is are Washington elite, guests of the Washington press core.