While I’m still liking Paul’s metaphor, where in he points out that some firms are like the springs in the mattress the entire economy lies upon, Felix Salmon plays with a nice alternative, the weather.

Most of the companies listed on the stock market aren’t, and they should be able to weather a financial storm with relative ease.

On the other hand, that financial storm really does seem to be more of a heavy breeze than a major hurricane. The Standard & Poor’s financial-stock index is down by only 3.5 percent this morning-hardly a bloodbath. And the TED spread-a measure of distrustfulness among banks-is up sharply at 192 basis points, but is still below the levels we saw in the summer of 2007, and again in December, and again in March. Indeed, each spike upward in the TED spread seems to be lower than the last, which has to be a positive sign.

The big unanswerable question, though, is what happens next. Hurricanes start out as a heavy breeze, and then get worse-and the preconditions for a financial hurricane are very much in place. If a real hurricane needs high ocean surface temperatures and warm humid air, a financial hurricane needs generalized nervousness and a general lack of liquidity. Once those are in place, a few failed trades are all that is necessary to precipitate a very nasty chain reaction.

Unlike the weather we lack nice high resolution photos from space to show us what’s just over the horizon, all we have is pictures of what happened yesterday.  We can look at the temperature, check which ways the gusts are blowing, tap on the barometer.  He draws our attention to one of these simple instruments.

“How big is settlement risk right now? An indicator one might look at is the number of “fails to deliver” and “fails to receive” reported by primary dealers in U.S. Treasury bonds.”

That’s 20 year’s of data.  Squeek’s from the springs in Paul’s mattress.  That first peek is just after 9/11.  The last burst is so far this year; but the data ends on the 3rd of September.

WANs are wide area networks, like the internet, and LANs are, local area networks, like the wifi in your house.  PANs, personal area networks, are – i thought – a joke.  Presumably each Borg has a PAN so his headset, pda, cell phone, and ankle bracelet can talk to each other and when he sits down in his car the engine, radio, gps all join in.

So imagine my surprise when this weekend I found I was creating a PAN using Bluetooth.  Bluetooth is a standard full of promise which seems to specialize in delivering a frustration.  Two things lead to that frustration.  First there is lots of bad hardware.  Chips that don’t work very well, headsets that sound awful for example or software stacks that are buggy.  Second the standard has volumes of optional bits and peices; so usually it turns out the two devices you want to talk to each other don’t happen to support the necessary bits.  Sometimes that’s intentional, for example you can’t use your phone as a handset to talk to your computer since that would let your route around the cell phone company using voice IP.  The structure of the Bluetooth standards with all those optional bits and peices is typical of telco standards.

The fun I had this weekend was discovering that this phone I got and some of my Macs support Bluetooth PAN, one of those optional bits.  Using this it was trivial to let my Mac talk connect to the internet connection that the phone provides.  One, two, three: Do the usual bluetooth pairing, select connect to network from the bluetooth menu, oh … there is no step three.

In theory Bluetooth PAN supports multiple devices sharing the internet connection, but apparently my phone doesn’t do that.

This worked trivially on a MacBook Pro running Leopard.  But sadly it does not work on the MacBook Air – which in a typical Bluetooth user experiance – pretends to support Bluetooth PAN but it is unusable slow.  So for that machine I’m forced to switch back to more traditional Bluetooth DUN (dialup networking – a simulation of the dialup modems of my childhood).

I got into all this because I’ve been wanting to try AT&T’s $20 a month “unlimited” prepaid internet.  Right now you can buy a Z750a for $60 from their prepaid store – and if you poke around you can find online sites that will send you a rebate (after 90 days) of $25 or $30.  If you pop in $100 then the phone is good for year (buy from CallingMart with a coupon). I don’t intend to make any phone calls so that’s five months of internet access.    The Z750a supports Bluetooth PAN, DUN, and it can be a remote control for you Mac (I recommend declining all the options you don’t need).  If you buy the USB cable it is faster (800/300kpbs down/up) but the G3 HSDPA over bluetooth is pretty nice (400/30) as it is.  The USB cable appears to charge the phone as well.

This seems like a great solution for getting pretty good broadband into the home at a reasonable price.  A mac can share a connection to WIFI for example.

If you find your reduced to using BT DUN rather than PAN then you need to setup the modem’s dialing setup … I used this setup: dial: *99***1#, Username: WAP@CINGULARGPRS.COM, Password: CINGULAR1, APN: <leave this blank!>, CID: 1.  It picked the right modem dialing script automaticlly.

I’m enjoying having broadband pretty much everywhere I go.  The phone just sits in my bag.  ATT isn’t everywhere (click on data).

Evernote is a cool idea.  They want to enable you to keep copy of all those random notes.  In this example I drew a quick sketch on an index card (on this topic).  I held it up to the little video camera on my Macbook and took this picture.

Then I dragged the resulting image into their application, and sychronized to their server.  Less than a minute later I syncronized again and they had run a bit of hand writting recognition over my sketch.  Not all, but some of the text was now searchable.

It works pretty well for business cards too.  Fun.

David Huynh and I worked together at in the Simile project (simile.mit) for the past few years.  We burnt through our funding and many of us have moved on; he moved to MetaWeb.  MetaWeb makes the horribly named Freebase.  Freebase is this era’s version of AI knowledge representation (think frames).    People these days tend to mumble Semantic Web, Wikipedia, and Social as well when they talk about these ideas.

At Simile we were more focused on more formal collections, like library catalogs, and so our data sets tended to be more homogeneous than the sloppy mess you get in collections that emerge in open socially contexts like Wikipedia.  We were often stuck with collections with a limited assortment of item kinds (books, authors, subjects followed by a short tail … satellite photos … audio tapes …).    Things get more “interesting” as the collections become more unruly.

David has a beautiful new demonstration of some the ideas, often his ideas, about how to work on one of the tough problems in this space.  What’s refreshing about David’s work is he’s found a portion of the problem space that isn’t cluttered with other people and prior work.  Most of the Semantic Web work suffers from stepping on the toes of prior work – or worse ignoring – the excellent work done on knowledge representation over the last 50+ years.  What David’s found is fresh turf to work on in the problem of how to allow users, meer mortals, to browse and search on top of these knowledge bases.  That’s fresh because the AI crowd have always been so fixated on the singularity, rather than on helping people.  Not a very social crowd the AI guys.

Before I start musing about what David’s demo shows, to me, you really have to watch the video.  The rest of this will make little sense without that.

The idea here is that if you have done a search resulting in a set of objects you should be able to use that set to drive the next step in the search.    In a sense this is the classic unix pipe idea refreshed, where each linkage in the pipeline passes a set to the following step.  Or if your of a more mathematical mindset then each transform in the pipeline is a many to many mapping from items to items.

One of our problems in making these ideas work when we were at MIT was the lack of a sufficiently heterogenous universe of items; you really need a vast universe with lots of item types.    His cities/buildings/architects example, or his presidents/offspring/schools examples helps to demonstrate that.  What Freebase with it’s aggressive rolling up of things like Wikipedia provides is a step toward that rich universe of items.

If your user is very sophisticated then a command line UI like unix pipelines would be sufficient.  You’d then give him various operators for mapping item sets into other item sets.  He, being sophisticated, would then demand the ability to code up his own mappings (e.g within 20 miles/years/generations/links etc. etc.); and to annotate the items as he is working with (e.g. scoring and statistics).  And needless to say he’d want the pipelines to persist and generate feeds for other pipelines of various kinds.

The problem become much harder if you want to draw in the non-sophisticated meer mortals.  What faceted browsing does, and what you can see here repurposed, is it prompts the user with a reasonably clear signal as to what his next options are for moving forward in the search space.      So if your shopping for lawn mowers a facet’d browsing UI can prompt with price categories, power sources, etc. to draw the user into the next step of the search.  This is all well and good until you meet real world searches where the number of facets are huge and the number of options in each of them is even larger.  Even if you pick something as dull as library books the number of facets runs up into the thousands.    Facet browsing actually works best when the goal is to drive the user toward down the path to a single choice – i.e. shopping.  No need to offer the shoe shopper a facet for labor practices used during manufacture, or materials used in assembly, or nation involved in the manufacturing.

David’s sliding plays the same card to help the user.  He throws up a set of options for the user’s next moves.  Note how the facet browsing UI is on the left, and the sliding is on the right.  Note also how rich and there for difficult to present the options are for where to slide next.  It’s admirable that the video doesn’t gloss over that – as illustrated by the example where he slides from offspring of presidents into educational institutions they attended.

I guess this note comes off sounding a bit cranky.  Hopefully it won’t be taken that way.  The problem is very hard and real.  Search of this kind is going to common for some class of users in the days to come.  The more progress that can be made on making the UI accessible to mortals the more widespread it will be.  The brilliance of David (and Stefano’s, and David Karger) strategy in working thru this problem has been to ground their search for solutions in demonstrations that draw in actual users and work on actual pools of data.  It keeps them honest and it creates feedback loops they desperately need.

Tim Oren relates this aphorism “Systems dump excess energy in the form of structure.”  He credits James Burke. Delightful.

If true it goes a long way toward explaining why large firms, who almost by definition succeed in capturing proportionally larger rents, become less adaptable.  Comfortable abundance gives you the luxury for polishing all your policies and procedures, and pretty soon “they’re being pursued by a snail and yet they cannot get away! ‘The snail! The snail!’, they cry. ‘How can we possibly escape!?.”

“Out of the vast mass of undifferentiated powers certain functional deities appear; and the Kami of Japan to-day who preside offer the gilds and crafts of industry and agriculture, over the trees and grasses of the field, the operations of the household, and even the kitchen-range, the saucepan, the rice-pot, the well, the garden, the scarecrow and the privy, have their counterparts in the lists of ancient Rome, the indigitamenta over whose contents Tertullian and Augustine made merry.  The child was reared under the superintendence of Educa and Palina.  Abeona and Adeona taught him to go out and in.  Cuba guarded him when he was old enough to exchange a cradle for a bed.  Ossipaga strengthened his bones; Levana helped him to get up, and Statina to stand.  There were powers protecting the threshold, the door and the hinge: and the duties of the house, the farm, the mill, had each it’s appointed guardian” — Page 69, Volume XXIII, Eleventh Edition of  The Encyclopaedia Britannica: A Dictionary of Arts, Sciences, Literature, and General Information

In Computer Science Abeona and Adeona go by the names Ping and Pong.

This is fun.  You install Adeona on a device; it then gleans information about the location of the device as best it can; and it streams that information into a distributed store.  Later you or somebody you trust pulls those records from the store.  Their example use case is recovery of a stolen laptop.

The paper is a fun read; since the system has a cascade of little tricks in it.

For example the reports streamed are encrypted so to frustrate observers.

They are asymmetrically encrypted so only if your have the appropriate secrets can you read the transcript, and in fact the it can’t even read them after it’s written them.

The event transcript accumulates continuously on the laptop.  It is sent to the store when ever it can make contact.  For example it can accumulate wifi hubs, bluetooth devices, images, and sounds the laptop observes even when it’s offline.

I particularly liked how they salt the encryption, changing over time, with from a random number generator.  By assuring that can’t run the generator backward they assure that even if a bad actor gets control of the laptop you can’t decode the transcript.  To replay the transcript you need to initial seed for the random number generator.

Using a distributed store eliminates the need for a central server.  People distrust central servers.  Instead, you need to trust the distributed store.

They use one of the existing distributed hash tables (OpenDHT) for their store.  I’m not clear on why they used that instead of one of the really big ones, which are much less likely to disappear.

This approach has obvious uses in lots of applications.  Event streams are everywhere.  For example you could encrypt your server logs this way.

You can let multiple parties replay the transcripts; for example your mom, your friends, you co-conspirators.

You could build a fully distributed p2p twitter or atom feed like system along these lines; with each participant collaborating in the distributed store, and the secrets needed to read the transcript passed only to your followers.  That wouldn’t eliminate the hotspot issues in such systems but I think we know how to do that from other work.

It was trivial to install on one of my macs; though it took me a while to puzzle out how to retrieve the logs (the key detail was /usr/local/adeona/adeona-retrieve.exe -h, i.e. no GUI and a somewhat odd install location).

I printed out the various keys needed to retrieve the logs and filed them away.

Boy you know times are changing when a Republican Senator suggests reducing the national speed limit!  In other news, on a week long road trip I was amazed that everybody was driving the speed limit, particularly the truck drivers.  People were also driving much more smoothly.  The very few who weren’t really stood out.  Watching norms and values change is always facinating, but it’s nice when they change in directions I happen to approve of.

All of which lead me to believe that this story about police adding a surcharge to speedin tickets to pay for fuel wasn’t entirely accurate.  I suspect the police are writing fewer tickets and the surcharge’s actual purpose is to fill a revenue shortfall.

Every additional 5 mph over that threshold is estimated to cost motorists “essentially an additional 30 cents per gallon in fuel costs,”

That’s a chart I’d like to see, i.e. the cost in cents/gallon of marginal increases in speed.

Update: This posting is pretty good.

This is a lovely article about a man who is methodically riding all the bus routes in the Seatle area.  It reminded me of the people who walk all the streets in Manhatten.    My wife and I once ate in every resturant on Mass Avenue, well at least a large segment of it, once a week.  It’s nice to have a structured project.  Maybe I should buy something in every bakery in Boston.  Hat tip to Zack.

Other examples please?