Category Archives: General

Eternal Flame

“The quality of comments is highest when the matter under consideration involves particular facts and decentralized knowledge. Posts which mention evolution, free will, or Paul Krugman do not generate the highest quality of comments” — here

I wonder, are we better or worse at moderating flame wars and polarization than we were one, two decades/centuries/millenniums ago?

Back in the 1980s I used to amuse people by announcing that I was hoping to light the eternal flame war. A toxic topic hybrid made from breeding copy-protection, gun-control, and abortion together.

Google Blog Search

Google Blog Search shows up. (Update ” just checking boxes on some Board of Director commitment sheet” – man that’s cold).

Which reminds me of one more idle thought about the eBay/Skype thing. “But on an internal webcast they emphasized eight times that it was business as usual.” … Why do they always say that?

Neighborhood Cars

Who knew? Golf carts are growing up and sticking their cute little noses out onto the highway.

Apparently some lobby managed to get the highway rules revised so that a new category of cars is emerging. The industry calls these “neighborhood cars.” You can drive them at up to 25 mile per hour (Oh yeah like anybody is going to enforce that!) on any road posted at 35 miles per hour or less. It’s amazing once you start looking how the vast majority of roads are posted at 35 or less. There are 2 and three lane highways around here posted at 35; i.e. “parkways.”

They had one of these at the office park I used to work in and the staff would zip all over the campus in it. These are the things you seeing going up and down the corridors in airports carrying the lazy, lame, and elderly. Micro bus lines. I’ve yet to see that in a big mall, but I bet it happens in some parts of the country. These are also the all terrain things with the big wheels you see “sportsmen” using to add a little excitement to the beach or national park. I gather they are popular on island resorts in Maine and in other gated communities.

Some of these are all electric; like the blue one shown.. Some are even solar powered. And there are bicycle variants that are delightfully weird; like the red one pictured.

I wonder what might happen if you put 500 of these in Boston and mixed in the tech from this European bike rental/sharing scheme.

Nuts, Criminals and PR Flaks sighted on Internet!

Tom Zeller’s article on various nuts on sighted on the Internet isn’t sufficiently bemused. The net is full of odd balls; it’s part of the architecture. Even so I’m bemused by his archetypical New York Times retorical style: “…a host of other, more colorful agendas are being burnished at the Internet’s fringe – with Katrina serving as chamois”

Tom should write another article about the amusing traffic on the PR Newswire regarding Katrina. Those PR flacks can manage to taint the most well meaning efforts of their employers by writing them us in self serving press releases. My favorite PR wire item is this one:

ATLANTA, Aug. 27 /PRNewswire/ — As Hurricane Katrina prepares to make landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast, residents and businesses are encouraged to keep a copy of The Real Yellow Pages close by for critical information on hurricane preparedness, survival and aftermath resources.

Tom’s article about post-Katrina scams is interesting. The low barrier to entry makes the Internet a fine venue for nutters, scammers. “Federal Bureau of Investigation put the number of Web sites claiming to deal in Katrina information and relief – some legitimate, others not – at ‘2,300 and rising.'”

Sooner or later we are going to introduce some serious infrastructure that help innocent people from thinking that nutters represent a widely held belief or that scammers are a legitimate organization. But it’s going to take a while because we have so many powerful institutions that would love to volunteer to do the job; none of which trust each other.

Meanwhile I’m reminded of this story.

…he told Johnny Carson four years earlier about his chimney-building days.

During his 1981 appearance, Arnold (Schwarzenegger) explained to Johnny how his bricklaying business worked. Franco and Arnold would call on a homeowner. Arnold, always good with the public, would keep the homeowner busy, discussing prices and such. “In the meantime,” Arnold recounted, “Franco climbed up on the roof to check the chimney-and he, of course, is a very strong guy and a [weight] lifter-he pushed all the chimneys over so they fall down. So these people come and say, ‘Oh, thank you so much for helping us. This could have fallen on somebody’s head, you know. Thank you for doing it for us.'”

Johnny was impressed. “What a racket,” he told the immigrant with a dream in his eye. “You go and push chimneys down and then rebuild them.”

“Exactly,” Arnold replied.

You don’t need the Internet to be a nut or a criminal.

Priceline

I am not a happy Priceline customer this morning. Here are five numbers: $42.00, $29.73, $27.00, $35.00. One is what I bid. One is the fees. One is the amount I was charged when I got to the rental counter so my wife could drive. One is how much I was charged for ariving 45 minutes late, but 15 minutes before the check counter agent told me to return. What a screw.

Flooding the Network

Cities are a geographic solution to the matching problem. Want to find a spouse, a model train caboose, a slide rule, a bar were they play music but not too loud, huitlacoche? At the same time cities aggregate webs of links that last over time. These networks of links sustain the urban residents and attract the rural. Economically vibrant cities like Silicon Valley or New York furiously generate new links. They build on top of the deep complex mesh of existing links. Economically weak and declining cities sputter along creating a fewer new linkages while their underlying networks are hoarded, decay, or depart.

The term social capital was introduced a few decades back in an attempt to give a name to some of that. The original idea of social capital was that you could sum up the value of a person’s connections if you sum up the capital equipment they had access to thru those connections. For example if I can borrow a hammer from my neighbor that’s part of my social capital. If I can borrow the company’s trunk when moving my apartment then that too is part of my social capital. If the boss will lend me his plane in crisis that part of it too.

Events that make and break links add and subtract from the net worth of your social capital. While you may lose a lot of capital worth when your house burns down you can lose a lot more when you move between cities, exit a club, switch proffessions, graduate from college.

There is a picture in today’s paper that show how people in the Astrodome have put up huge signs in an attempt to find other people in their social network. It says they ring a bell each time one link is reconnected. It boggles the mind to imagine what’s involved in re-stitching the social web of an entire city. How would I ever reconnect with the butcher that makes my sausages?

The demand to recreate these connections is one of the reasons why we will rebuild something around New Orleans. The desire to reclaim the social capital is extremely strong. It will work in tandem with the necessities of the physical capital. New Orleans is a distribution bottleneck for a whole range of goods. Distribution bottlenecks are very analogous to cities; a web of supply mets a web of demand and flows thru them like the food flows thru Paris.

One feature of New Orleans economy is how capital intensive it’s distribution flows are. It’s not like New York, Boston, or Silicon Valley where the goods that are flowing are practically weightless. The oil, grain, cement, automobiles that flow thru New Orleans depend of extremely expensive installations. Consider Henry Hub where the price of natural gas futures is fixed; 15 natural gas pipelines that reach out across the entire nation and a sea of storage tanks. Or consider the refineries any one of which would take Billions of dollars to reproduce. Or the oil terminal where one pipeline carries 20% of the US oil ashore. These distribution networks are very hard to move. Moving Howard’s Hub would require rerouting all those major pipelines.

The nodes and links in both the social and the physical networks range across various key metrics. Their value for example. My neighbor’s hammer is less valuable than my employer’s truck. Their resistance to breaking. Moving a pipeline is harder than changing where a shipping container goes.

When the hurricane comes it strips all the leaves from the trees; when the flood comes the weakest links are dissolved. But these are the vast majority of the links; and so that it always the greatest loss. It is very hard to imagine that those billions of dollars we are spending on relief and rebuilding will be focused on regenerate those. Yesterday I read about the engineer asked about the environmental effect of pumping out the city and he said; we have higher priorities right now. New Orleans has always been a city with a severely skewed wealth distribution. This is only going to make is worse.

Weather v.s. Law Enforcement

Art Botterell wrote an interesting email to Dave Farber’s venerable Interesting People mailing list giving a bit of his impression of how FEMA has evolved over the years. It’s very interesting from a number of perspectives. They apparently learned a lot from the experience around Hurricane Andrew, learnings that went missing in recent years.

One thing he mentions in passing I found particularly thought provoking. “And then came 9/11. FEMA was subsumed into a law-enforcement dominated Department of Homeland Security” That’s a fascinating dialectic; between the problem of how respond to an emergency v.s. the job of law enforcement. In law enforcement there is a bad guy; so much of your energy is directed to, as Pat Robertson says, taking him out. In emergency management geology, weather, and the bad guys that get away are your problem. One is all about individual actors, while the other is all about probabilities, scenarios, and rapid response after the fact. I suspect that people have a natural tendency toward one or the other world view.

A skills of law enforcement seem pretty clearly bogus for tempering the risks of hurricanes and earthquakes. What really caught my attention though was that I suspect that they are far less effective for tempering the risks of terrorism than one might think at first blush.

Take for example the risk of terrorist acts against critical distributed systems; like pipelines, highways, power grids. The pool of bad actors is everybody on the planet with a grudge and the target has a immense perimeter. The chance of the vile deed is a statistical modeling problem; like weather forecasting. There are only a few ways to temper the risk. Three examples: find ways to reduce the energy of hate being pumped into the system. Find ways to configure the systems so they are less fragile; for example by finding choke points in these networks and distributing them. And finally being ready react quickly to limit the damage when it happens. I’m sure that law enforcement experts use these techniques; but they aren’t at the core of their craft.

I’m not a great fan of one dialectic to rule them all; but this is certainly an interesting one to throw in the pot. I think of the terrorism problem as more like the weather while I think a lot of people I disagree with tend to think it’s a law enforcement problem.

One risk of getting all excited about a single dialectic is that you tend to project it casually onto lots of other problems. But you it’s clear that what you see in New Orleans is very different if you see it as the breakdown of public order or the a vast messy coordination problem gone horribly wrong. What you do over the coming months is very different depending on your mind set. Law enforcement or emergency management?

BlogDay

For Blogday. I enjoy the blogs of people who practice a craft and write about it; for example Spirits Dancing is the blog of an artist in Australia. “My husband’s grandfather had a wide notion of what might be fixed with paint, and it got more extensive as he got older, until he was happily fixing stains in upholstery and carpets with dabs of paint.”

Two blogs that skim off the cream from the long tail. Global Voices out of harvard is providing a slight glimpse of what the real world is like; it tends to be a bit more political than I’d like “In Bangladesh, Futurebanglanetwork is cynical about the World Bank’s motivations when it comes to lobbying against a SIM card tax.” For something completely different Xupacabras is almost entirely arty photographs of nude women and certainly not safe for work; it provides an excellent portal for finding the sites of amazing photographers.

The author of Open Brackets is a translator who grew up Canada and lives in france. I particularly love how many times she will revise any given posting. “Although most of us would probably like to think that grand philosophical leitmotifs thread their way through our lives (ethical dilemmas and a steady but glorious plod to some form of wisdom), an obscenely large portion of solitary meditation is in fact taken up by the pettiest of thoughts ”

And finally pubsub. Pubsub isn’t a blog, it’s kind of search engine You give it a query and it gives you back a rss feed. I love to make queries of combinations of words and see what comes out. For example I got the posting from the “real yellow pages” suggesting that it’s very important to keep your phone book close at hand when preparing for a hurricane. Or the posting that there is a ranking for colleges based on reports of how healthy their squirrel population is. I love the sendipity of these feeds. I tend to have a 20 at any given time, churning all the time. Pick an unusual word, for example right now I’m watching “unwatering” or a pattern of words (for example: (“duck boat” OR “duckboat” OR “cruise ship”) AND katrina) and see what happens.

More fun at: Feedster, Technorati, IceRocket, BlogPulse, Del.icio.us