Monthly Archives: July 2007

Authenticating Utility Access

Over at Architectures of Control I find this posting about a patent application from Apple that points out a means of securing hardware by limiting which battery chargers are allowed authorized to work with the device.  I have had quite a family of ideas along these lines over the years.  Most of these emerged from slew of wonderful standards stories.  You see you can always use non-standard as a means of service denial.  The example most of us have seen are the plugs in hotels to make it more inconvenient to steal the hair dryer; a historical example is adopting a non-standard railroad gage or bullet to make an invading army’s life more difficult.  My favorite story of this class: when they build the world trade center some vendor convinced the contractor to use light bulbs during the construction period that twisted into the sockets the wrong way, counter-clockwise.  Nominally that was to prevent the workers from stealing the bulbs but to my mind it was a great way to assure vendor lock-in.

The Apple scheme involves having the charger handshake with the charging subsystem in the device to see if it’s authorized.  It’s notable that the charging subsystem’s computer(s) can be kept closed and proprietary while leaving the rest of the system and open platform.  Obviously you could do something similar in the graphics chip or the network controller, i.e. any where you have a reasonable smart interface chip.  I mean, some of the printer manufactures even do it with their ink cartridges.
There are plenty of variations on this idea.  The coffee shop DHCP sign-in rituals are an example. Airports and other public spaces could have lots of non-standard plugs and then rent adapters which grant visitors access.  IT managers could have non-standard network connectors to help control access to their infrastructure by building visitors.  We can put a lot of wit into a very small package these days; and we know, form the counter-clockwise light bulbs, that people love to get increased control over the littlest things.

Behavior is Socially Viral, well duh!

The papers have recently been full of stories about yet another interesting pattern that researchers have gleaned from the data collected in the Framingham heart study. You can get a taste for the result by watching this annimation. What is shows is a social network (genetic and friends) changing over time. The primary focus of attention is body fat, and over time the member of this community get fatter, a lot fatter.

The sound bite associated with this study is that fat is contagious; and indeed the study showed that friends of fat folk had a higher likelihood of becoming fat than other people. Social networks exhibit a tremendous amount of “birds of feather flock together.” If I buy an conditioner, take up bicycling, start wearing a hat, or take a particular political position it is likely that I am following the lead of some of my friends and that my choice will lead others to come along.

While all behavior is socially viral I am troubled by the way that lots of people have gotten the impression that this study proves that weight gain is viral; i.e. the association with fat people is effectively dangerous because becoming fat is dangerous. I have trouble seeing how that conclusion isn’t exactly like the presumption that association with poor people (think here of the local high school) is likely to make you poor. While both of these may well have a modicum of truth to them the puzzle is exactly how concerned about the risk should a person be?

Reading the paper I’m struck by the apparent absence of references to other work on how ideas, behaviors, and real viruses spread across social networks. I.e. there id no framing of exactly how contagious this effect is relative to other things.

I’d love to see similar animations for other behavioral affectations. For example people who own air conditioners, folks who drive large cars, eating out at chain restaurants. It is inconceivable that the modern marketing industry doesn’t have reams of data like that. The this study is looking at something with a strong health component colors how we think about this. If the same data showed internet usage, or cell phone adoption, then we would presume that the primary driver certainly as much or entirely techo-economic rather than dragging in questions of individual will and infection. Of course ideas like choice, memes, viral spread would remain interesting but the wouldn’t be so highly energized.

Causality is very complex stuff; but I don’t see how this study is a big help in getting at the root causes of obesity. If we had a similar drawing that showed the association with internet users substantially increased the chance of adopting becoming an internet user would we announce that it was contagious? What about gun ownership? What about being a Republican? This animation looks to me like a simple illustration of how a behavior gains market share; i.e. decreasing barriers to adoption enable increased market share. That adoption trickles across the social network seems mind bogglingly obvious and actually quite unexceptional.

Controlling the agenda

I always enjoy reading about the rules for the presidential debates. For example sometimes they have a rule that the candidates may not point out audience members or bring props. The rule against props is presumably so they don’t start pulling documents out of their pocket and going “Right here it states, oh my most ‘honorable’ oponent, that …”; but the rule always gets me to imagining they are going to start juggling, set their hair on fire, break out in song, or something.

Presumably the only reason why the uTube debate stunt makes any sense at all is because these random uTube dudes can speak truth to power since unlike a full time journalist they have zero chance of every getting asked back again.  They can burn their bridges with every question; and use props!

If you have participated about in topic-free email lists for any period of time you’ll know that if a topic arises all possible positions on that topic  will, sooner or later, be trotted out. Ask about your crab grass problem and before long people will be suggest: gobal warming, ferrets, lack of good personal hygiene, while others will point out these suggestions are likely illegal or unethical. It’s part of the fun to try and predict which points that haven’t been made yet will be raised before the thread dies out.

So the whole uTube debate thing is totally bogus. They solicited questions from the masses; and presumably they got a reasonable sample of every question that could possibly be asked. Then somebody selects from the set of all possible questions the ones that actually get asked.

Who ever selected the question controlled the agenda. Pretending otherwise is just silly. The only question I have is exactly how big a Cheshire Cat smile they adopted each time one of their more edge selections was played. Pretending that this is somehow more democratic is either lying or naive.

Identity is a Story

I like “Identity is a Story“. Story is a very nice metaphor for what most people mean when they talk about some thing’s identity. He quotes:

Rorty says in her introduction:

“Why are we interested in someone being the same person, and not merely the same human being or physical object? One reason is primarily retrospective: we need to know whom to reward and whom to punish for actions performed when “they” were acknowledgedly different in some respects from the present population. But we have more forward-looking reasons as well: we want to know what traits remain constant so that we can know what we can expect from the persons around us. We assign crucial responsibilities to individuals, assume important continuing relationships to them in the belief that certain of their traits are relatively constant or predictible.”

and then goes on to suggest that the useful definition of identity is as a story.

The story metaphor is very nice. It’s very rich and complex. Stories have chronology, characters, statements, a story teller; and often a hero. The story creates an identity for the hero. Which is just one of many such stories. The story teller is sometimes omniscient; and this is how some people view the modern state, but sometimes he’s just another protagonist.

Implementors of simple identity systems often mistake account relationship for identity. In the story model of identity we don’t need to call it a mistake because it is just a particular kind of story.  One with only two characters, and usually the story teller is the implementor and his product manager.

Around the Camp Fire

I’m enjoying reading the last Harry Potter in part because so many other people on the train are reading it.  Last summer there were banners on the Libraries in Cambridge announcing that Cambridge was reading some book and they got me to imagining what that would be like.  Stepping onto the bus, chatting with the bus driver about a particular scene or character.  Waiting at the corner for the light and striking up a conversation with another pedestrian about that plot twist in the third chapter.  You can do that with the Harry Potter, and people do; the book acts as a kind of gang colors inviting the conversation.

The ebb and flow of block busters in the culture is part of the symptoms of the highly skew’d distributions that permeate networks.  The book I’m reading on cities includes an argument that mass media was extremely corrosive to the civic sphere.  At one time cities had an unimaginably rich ecology of civic groups.  To put it simply, with the arrival of television everybody suddenly just stayed home; and the civic groups evaporated.  It’s the bowling alone story or the collapse of social networks story, but much earlier.

A friend pointed this out to me this morning, an early form of cinema
Scroll

That would travel about, tickets were sold, a man would read a narration, the hand painted scroll would be displayed to the gathered audience.  Now we look at uTube on our iPhones alone, later maybe, forwarding them to our mySpace contacts.

Toll Collecting

Michael Froomkin’s musing that toll collector might be the worst job has lead to some to be less than amused but, yeah; I was amused for the self centered reason that I’ve thought a lot about toll collecting. You see my favorite business model is the two sided network, i.e. a hub that coordinates the transaction traffic between two groups and for the longest time my preferred visualization for this model is as a bridge between the two populations.  The toll taking funds the owner’s house on the beach.  These are very profitable businesses that are very hard to create. They are like the old and foolish idea of selling to China where in you fantasize making a vast sum of money by charging a vast population a tiny tiny amount of money. Businesses like this are easy to find, because they have to touch vast populations, but they are very hard to build because you have to coordinate the millions, or billions, of transactions. Not just get those transactions to take place, you have to charge a toll on each one.

I love the saying the economics takes as it’s area of interest solved political problems, e.g. that each simple economic transaction marks a solution to some political problem. Of course every transaction is a political act. My choice where to buy Harry Potter is a vote in a political negotiation about the nature of modern retailing; the currency system I use, the store I select, the discounts (bribes) I garner, etc. etc. all fold into that politics. I suspect, for example, that the average cost to merchants of credit card transactions is around 5-7% of the transaction. Contrasting that to the total tax burden it seems like a very high cost for an alternate currency system. The regulatory framework around that, for example the bankruptcy rules, are of course a part of negotiating those taxes; a political problem. We have, depending upon our mood, various names for the processes that frame the politics of these negotiations about how to coordinate the transactions and who gets to collect the tolls if any. We can call it creative destruction, entrepreneurship, institution building, politics, revolution, etc. etc.

Sometimes we even call it freedom not so much because each time you succeed in creating a new high volume widely used from of exchange you create a bloom of new options for fun things in it’s penumbra; but because often the new institutional framework routes around an existing system’s constraints. It maybe the relaxing of constraints that creates the sense of freedom more than the bloom of fresh options. (I think there is something in that which is related to Clay’s recent point about “taking for granted“; e.g. that those freed have a hard time taking full advantage of the fresh option space because their muscles are somehow stiff; but I’m not clear exactly what.)

In the folk tale I recall the ferryman tricks one of his passengers into taking over his job. I have a few fluffy theories as to why that is. The toll collector is not the owner of the hub; he’s just a cog in the machine. In fact the hub owner would prefer that he never gum up the works. Heaven forbid that he should enter add complexity to the transaction. The toll taking is added complexity already the owner would prefer that tax be as invisible as possible.

There are two other reasons though; that extend beyond just the toll taker and effect the hub owner. The owner of a successful hub has a captured something of a monopoly; what a military man might call a high value target. Keeping everything running smoothly is tough work. Meanwhile each of those travelers passing over the ferry are going someplace, doing something, they are on holiday, going to town, moving on. They are free. He is not; he’s got a job to do.

Delegating to the toll booth collector the tedium is all well and good; but after a bit the toll booth collector has the worst of all perspectives. He sits in the center of a monopoly touching each coin of the monopoly rents but keeping none of it while watching all the happy travelers exercising the options created enabled by the solution to the coordination problem in which he can not share. No wonder, after a while, the begins to fantasize trading places with one of the travelers.

Delightfully, in the folktale the ferryman finally manages to foist the gig off on the king.

Bill starts a dating service

I had the fun a long time ago of being the first bidder on this auction:

Today Bill told a bit more of the story.

See, something else happened: During the sale dozens of people contacted me by email and telephone. They weren’t seeing it as a joke. They were anxious to bid. They regretted being unable to participate. The wanted to work with me on research, or with anybody on research, or have a chance to carry forward research they had started but lost.

They wanted to collaborate.

They were graduate students, and laymen, and people with Ph.D.s and M.S. and other advanced degrees in mathematics and science and engineering and humanities and social sciences and art. And they were busy, and focused, and full of ideas and every one felt disenfranchised.

For one reason or another they felt unable to collaborate in serious research, to follow ideas through to completion with colleagues. They were stymied by sexism (MIT-trained female math Ph.D., forced into industry by uncollaborative peers), by the burden of diligence (graduate and undergraduate students, or industrial researchers ordered to focus and pay attention on their immediate work), by the walls of the many-siloed Ivory Tower itself. Or they were smart academics in the right position, who had nobody willing to collaborate with them in a culture that over-values competition and secrecy and primary authorship. Some were full professors, fully-credentialled but held back by service or administrative obligations, or funding hardships, or some other oft-voiced complaint. Some were in small ivy-covered undergraduate teaching institutions, or community colleges, and just out of luck for chances to do some work.

Nobody seemed dumb. Nobody sounded like they were trying to scam a lightened workload by foisting the hard part of their project over to me. Nobody was trying to cheat on their homework or thesis. Nobody was a creationist, nobody was astroturfing. They all made it sound as if finding a colleague was the best thing they could imagine.

I make it out to be very general, very broad, almost ubiquitous. There was diversity in the character of response, but I’m not exaggerating: nearly two dozen people contacted me. This expression of disenfranchisement was a shared trait of a stream of email correspondents, and people who called me directly on my business line. They didn’t really care how good or bad I was, and maybe didn’t care too much about my credentials. The fact that I seemed capable, and serious, and willing to give my time and energy to thinking and talking with them about something they were interested in that was enough.

I have a catalog of insta-theories for Open Source, but that there is always a kind of desperate undercurrent of demand for quality collaborators isn’t in that catalog. I’ll go fix that.

Wegman’s

One of the institutions of upstate New York is Wegman’s, here in Ithaca the Wegman’s is a vast box store; i.e. the size of a Walmart or a Target.  It makes you wish you had a bicycle.  Like other modern grocery retailing machines they try to lock you in with a loyality card.  I have a small collection of these for the stores around Boston, all in Mr. Gate’s name, so you can imagine my disappointment that Wegman’s actually requires you to show your driver’s license before they issue one.

Reading as I am regional histories has brought to my attention that the US suffered a major economic Panic in 1837.  One event in that unfolding mess was the point when banks, which at the time issued most of the folding money, all stopped exchanging it for hard currency.      “Out of 850 banks in the United States, 343 closed entirely, sixty-two failed partially, and the system of State banks received a shock from which it never fully recovered.”  The customers of those banks and the holders of their currency lost everything.  They were locked-in, what a marketing person would call loyal.  How money should work became a key issue in the national debate for a long period following.  Over time the US moved from a highly distributed currency system to a centralized one.  I believe we are moving back to something more privately run.  The loyalty cards only a small part of that.
Once in possession of your Wegman’s loyalty card the check out transaction process has three steps.  First you prove you are a loyal members of the Wegman’s club by swiping your card.  At that point you are presented with a screen with, and this is the amazing part, 8 choices on it!  These distinguish which currency system you want to use.  Having selected, for example credit, you then swipe a second card to reveal what credit card network your allied with.  There is a fourth step where you sign the receipt; but this is optional based on rules I haven’t investigated.

The reason for all these currency systems is to allow thier operators to take slice of every transaction.  The slices are huge, many percent.  A huge operator like Wegman’s probably has the slice negotated down; but a small retailer, like the coop in Ithaca (who also has a loyality program), is probably paying 5-7% across all his transactions.  Meanwhile I got a 2$ off the price of a pie.

Of course the faux reason for these systems is efficiency.    Here’s a lovely blog posting about that!, where in the writer attempts to fight back because he’s so peeved by the Visa Ad campaign intended to shame people who aren’t getting with the program.

As an interesting complement to all this the Ithaca community has a long running experiment in trying to run it’s own currency system.  I presume they are called Ithaca Hours to link them to work rather than gold.  In the period following the Panic of 1837 many companies started paying their workers in scrip.  I love the idea of local currencies, but I must admit I can’t quite puzzle out if they are a good or a bad witch.  I am confident that the entire credit card/debit-card system ought to be run by the US treasury; the cost of running these alternate currency systems is outrageous.

City

I’ve thought and read about cities for decades so it is extremely cool to encounter a new idea.  I’m currently on vacation in Ithaca NY, and before hand I wandered into the Architecture library at work to pick up a book about the Finger Lakes region.    That book was a disappointment, but nearby was a big thick book confidently called City about New Haven Connecticut and as is my wont I picked it up too.  City: Urbanism and Its End by Douglas Rae adds two new, to me, pieces to the puzzle of what happened to the American cities.

My father used to tell a story about a scholarly study of what climate is most suited to civilization.  The scholars plotted latitude of the great civilizations down through the ages.  Fitting a curve to their data they showed conclusively that the current optimal location of a civilization was New Haven Connecticut.  Needless to say the scholars were at Yale.  I grabbed the book in the hope it would turn out my father’s story wasn’t entirely tongue and cheek.

Geography does shape civilizations of course.  The presumption that Yankee thrift and innovation is a consequence of the Puritan culture, to take a common example, is thrown into question by the story of how the Puritans who migrated to Central America at the same time  ended up being slave owning oligarchs.  In that case the distinguishing factor appears to be labor availability.  In New England labor was dear, land wasn’t; while in the Central America it was the other way around.  Dear and innovation go hand and hand.

The thesis of “City: Urbanism and Its End,” beautifully and delicately presented in the first chapter, states that cities, like New Haven, made sense as a coordinating device only for a short period, less than a century.  It’s conventional to say that the automobile killed the center cities and in models of that kind the primary driver of how concentrated our settlements are is the transportation system used to glue them together.  Old cities in Italy have narrow streets because they were used on foot while modern urban spaces care more about tractor-trailers than tricycles.

The usual complement to the transportation based models of city concentration are ones about endowment.  First there were the natural endowments, a good and defensible harbor or along an existing trade route for example early London or New York’s are examples of that.    Later cities became their own endowment; aggregating social networks, capital, functional governance, etc. etc.  San Jose, and Silicon Value, is a modern example and Venice or Amsterdam a older one.  This model of cities as aggregating increasing returns in their endowments is my preferred model for what shapes the concentration of populations into cities; in part because it seems to fit well the power-law distribution of city sizes.

In the years prior to the rise of cities like New Haven the population was concentrating into what he calls Fall Line Cities, i.e. cities build along a river that was rapidly descending so as to take advantage of water power.  Labor, capital, expertise, the whole complex knot needed to make industrialism work, had to migrated to the power source.  That changed with the advent of steam power, railroads, coal, etc.

So that’s new to me.  Energy was no longer dear, or at least no longer immovable,it could no longer command all the other elements of the party to show up where ever it happened to be.  Once energy stopped being the key endowment other factors became the hard thing coordinate.  The city became the party.  One consequence of that insight is to wake up to the key role that electricity plays in blowing apart the 20th century central city.  It is, possibly, just a critical to the story as the automobile.  Before electricity you wanted to be near a rail or flat water to get your coal, to run your steam engines.  This reminded me of another of my father’s stories.  He had a friend who started a company making fiber optics, and that factory was carefully sited to be adjacent to a high tension power line near a small New England town with a concentration of optics expertise.

But there is yet another part to the story that is new to me.  Some years ago I was shocked to watch how real estate interests in Massachusetts were able to override the governance of the states principle cities using a statewide proposition.  Rae highlights how cities are seriously handicapped in the US by how their governance is structured.  In 1907 the Supreme Court wrote: “The State .. at its pleasure may modify or withdraw all [city] powers, may take without compensation [city] property, hold it itself, or vest it in other agencies, expand or contract the territorial area, unit the whole or a part of it with another municipality, repeal the charter and destroy the corporation.  All this maybe done, conditionally or unconditionally, with or without the consent o the citizens, or even against their protest.  In all these respects the State is supreme.”

That’s why, for example, suburban and rural voters could pass a referendum over the objections of city dwellers in Massachusetts.  That’s why New York city can’t get it’s hands on a half a Billion dollars from the feds for congestion pricing without sharing a large portion of the money with the rest of New York state.  Why New York is attacked by terrorists and we send money not to cities but to states where it buys toys for rural police departments rather than improved harbor security.  It’s why when the automobile began to undermine the numerous endowments that cities has accumulated they had such a hard time fighting back; and it goes a long way toward explaining why European cities were more successful in tempering the displacement of those endowments.

Of all the endowments cities have the diversity and richness their social and knowledge networks are the ones I find most fascinating.  My father’s friend needed electricity and a pool of optics expertise he could draw upon.  I’ve thought that eBay and Google couldn’t have happened in any other situation; they desperately needed the pool of expertise that only the bay area could provide.  These endowments are the ones that Jane Jacob’s emphasises in her works.  By the time she was writing cities were created innovation but as firms grew they threw their factories out into the periphery.  Just as Apple manufactures in Taiwan, or Google puts it’s servers next to hydroelectric plants.  It is, just possible, that the Internet will displace these social/knowledge endowment as well.  While I don’t know how that will play out for cities what I do know is that it’s harder than it looks replicating those in on the fabric provided by the net.