Monthly Archives: January 2007

Most attractive Computer Scientists

Another example for my collection of power law distributions. The data is taken from CiteSeer. It shows the most attractive ten thousand computer scientists. Where attractive means that their papers attracted bibliographic citations. This is normalized by publication year, what ever that means? I feel guilty about posting this one. This kind of competition is extremely toxic to collaboration.

Powerlaw of most cited computer scientists.

The flat bits on the curve appear to be coauthor pairs. The gentle bow to the curve suggests that something regulatory starts to kick in toward the top. If I had data I presume the curve would become more stern.

Somebody must have computed slope of this curve for different academic domains. The shape over time would be even more interesting. Assuming one has a choice about one’s calling, wouldn’t that be valuable input to the decision?

Holidays

I once did a consulting gig for a huge bank and learned that thier international funds transfer network would grind to a crawl each May Day.  All over the world workers would take a day off and capitalism would grind to a halt.

If you work in middle management in any large firm you learn to despise one particular task, organizing a meeting.  Coordinating a diverse group of people to all show up at the same time and place; the more diverse the group the harder it is.

A powerful charismatic actor in a distant part of my organization recently organized a gathering in the early evening.  The attendees all showed up.  It was a wily move, putting our loyalty to the workplace in competition with our loyalty to what ever social network we page in just after the workday ends.  He sweetened the deal with food.

So I have this theory, “which is mine,” that one of the functions of holidays is to create interruptions in the usual dance of social network coordination.  They are society device to relieve the stress that builds up if these secondary social networks don’t get some attention.  This theory leads to a natural question: “what secondary social networks did you nurture during the last break?”

The scarcity of these breaks leads to competition.  Around my house we started joking this last holiday season.  “You know, that the Christians stole this holiday from the pagans.    Right?”  “Oh yeah! …  But then, the Pagans stole it from the Neanderthals.” Of course the the commies stole May Day from the Pagans too.
Modern life makes the war on holidays all that more interesting, since modern life is al about juggling numerous social networks.
We don’t do May day in the US.  The tension between capital and labor played out in different ways.  We do have a holiday assigned to labor, but it’s in September.  I don’t think I’ve heard, even once, somebody complain about how we have lost touch with the true meaning of Labor Day.  Putting our Labor Day on the opposite end of the annual calendar from May Day was presumably a scheme to avoid the US labor movement coordinating it’s activities with thier international brethern.

If your goal is to engineer a social network you spend a lot of your time attempting to orchestrate these points of rendezvous.  In or out of existence depending on your goals.    Eid ul-Fitr is an example of a holiday that is close to, but doesn’t quite, land on the exact same day worldwide.  I’ve read rants from people who feel it ought to.  There was a long standing yearning in my household that, if only, we could all agree to exchange presents a week after Christmas morning, think of the money we could save!
Sometimes you find competing holidays running up right against each other.  Halloween next to All Saint’s day is a classic example.  My favorite it Queen’s day in Holland, right next to May day.

Foreclosure Tracking

The RealtyTrac web site shows real estate foreclosure data for the US. It’s thought provoking to look at places your familiar with thru this somewhat specialized lens. What you want to do here is get to their maps quickly. To do that you:

  • enter a zipcode
  • select a house at random
  • on that house’s abbreviated listing page click on the interactive map button

Then browse around the neighborhood you’ve selected. When you want to look at another neighborhood, start over. Be sure to take a look at good and bad neighborhoods, places your friends and relatives live, and at places you’ve lived over the years. I really hadn’t appreciated how there some seemingly pleasant neighborhoods where it appears that one out of 20 homes are owned by the bank.

Value of the Irrational

One of the two books about business to which I return often is Strategy Safari by Mintzberg et. al. It is a delightful tour through the jungle of approaches to strategic management people have suggested over the decades. In spite of it’s cheerful and concise nature I find I can’t casually read this book. I need to stew for a week or two on each section before deciding I’m done with it. At the same time I prefer to skitter about in the book so I can let one framework fight it out with another while I watch in amusement.

Back in the 1970s and 80s I spent some time associated with the knowledge engineering crowd. That community labored to build a class of software systems, expert systems, that could perform as well as an expert in this or that narrow technical domain. For example let’s say you had a huge expensive chemical plant. In that plant you’d find a guy, call him Joe, and Joe knew how to start it up. It would take a few days to get the thing running and Joe was the guy who knew how to do it. Did I mention? Joe is retiring next year. In the knowledge engineering crowd approach to this problem was to see if you could extract from Joe, via observation, interviews, what ever, a codification of his knowledge. In the AI/expert systems branch of knowledge systems the idea was to code it up software. The unit for such encoding was rule; i.e. Given that the pump in the basement of building 7 is making that funny noise it sometimes makes delay starting the boiler in until the noise stops.

This turns out to be much harder than it looks. Which we probably knew going into it, since back in the 70s it became common to observe that it took experts about a decade to become competent. That if you modeled the scale of their rule set you can then say that they learned a new rule at the rate of about one or two a day over that decade. It is unlikely you can pull the rules back out of Joe’s head much faster than that. Joe can’t just rattle off his rule set as if you were down loading some file. For Joe these rules are intuitive. I like to say they are compiled in. He doesn’t think thru why the boiler’s start up should be delayed, and in fact he may not even be able to tell you that he’s waiting or the pump to stop making the funny noise. At least he can’t tell you without a effortless moment of introspection.

I was reminded of all that as I read the delightful chapter on the “culture school” of strategic management. The culture school had a few years of popularity when the Japanese cars caught the attention of the B-school crowd. Any number of them up and ran off to Japan and for many of them it was the first time they had seen a radically different culture, i.e. Japanese culture. So a favorite theory what the strategic magic Toyota had that GM didn’t was culture.

But what is culture? It’s unlikely that GM could have been saved by introducing underwear vending machines; but would moving all their suppliers into a dense single city have helped? Culture is like expert knowledge, decompiling it is very hard. If you stop a member of a culture in the midst of some activity and demand “so, why do you do that?” What is the functional value of sleeping on the train? Standing up?

I was delighted by the answer they suggest in Strategy Safari, i.e. that Culture is exactly that which you can’t explain; i.e. it is the expert knowledge which you haven’t codified and made rational. Which of course makes it a bit difficult to manage. If your faced with a competitor who’s advantage over you is cultural the challenge is convert culture into codified knowledge. That’s hard, like getting Joe to mention that thing about the funny noise. Machine that changed the world is a good attempt at that for the Toyota example.
Strategic Safari has a nice framing of why culture is valuable. Firms have unique resources; e.g. capital, location, skills, property, talent. Some of these unique resources are particularly unique because their competitors can’t imitate them; e.g. these resources are valuable, hard to substitute for, and rare. When Steve Job’s brings a few other CEOs on stage during his MacWorld keynotes he is signaling just that: Apple has Steve and as you can see these other guys ain’t Steve. Microsoft has HotMail, but competitors like Google and Yahoo are able to, over time, imitate it and build a substitue.

Knowledge resources are particularly easy to imitate, but only if you can codify it. The harder a company’s knowledge assets are to codify, aka cultural, the more likely they can actually provide a strategic advantage. A valuable culture will be hard to codify. They also have nice five step recipe for how to kill a culture (useful when faced with a dysfunctional culture):

  1. Manage the Bottom Line, no actions that can’t rationally explain their benefits.
  2. Plan every action, avoid spontaneity and thus learning.
  3. Move managers around preventing domain expertise from displacing their managerial skills.
  4. Always objective, aka portfolio management.
  5. Always use recipes with five steps.

Discussing with a friend how culture is the asset you can’t rationalized he mused that it sounds like the problem many super heroes have e.g. that their super power is accessible only via some irrational pathway. We chortled at the idea of a fantastic four of strategic marketing. The Johnny Storm of PR; the Incredible Hulk of closing; Mr. Fantastic of discriminatory pricing; and the Invisible Woman of customer support.

Slander local business, earn a dollar

Last fall InsiderPages.com put a price, on dollar, on what they were willing to pay for local business reviews. I stumbled on this when yesterday morning Google injected some very critical reviews of my auto mechanic onto a map page.  I was checking if I’d found the right phone number.

These reviews were bad enough to trigger my calling two other mechanics.  They couldn’t take my car until next week.

Finally I went back to look at the reviews. They were weird.  They complained about the prices my guy charges for food and refered to some newspaper article about his his bad behavior. They were totally bogus!  He doesn’t sell food and my area papers are far too business friendly to ever write such an article.

The reviews Google subscribed to came from Insider Pages.  Looking up auto mechanics I could see that they, amazingly, had one and only one review for every mechanic in town.  That’s not how community generated content looks.
When I signed up to write a counter review I was prompted for a promotion code and that lead me web pages showing their promotion last fall.

This kind of slander could destroy a small business and it should be criminal. Insider pages knowing paid people to create fraudulent reviews and given the statistics of the reviews I say they made no effort manage the problem. Google’s authority only magnifies the crime. I presume it would be a piece of cake for some lawyer to find a thousand businesses slandered like my auto mechanic has been and bring suit against the various parties in this example. Something more severe than letting the market punish them is appropriate.

This is the dark side of social networking (talent scrapping) sites. Get the talent to commit the crimes you need committed. It’s the social networking site owner as troll. In the worst case the business is looking for a way to force, i.e. blackmail, the local businesses into participating at the site.  Angie’s List has been accused of that.

Speed Reader, TxUtils, AIM2Growl

Some misc…

I cobbled together a  speed reading mode for xemacs based on my earlier post about dyslexia. There are certainly a lot of directions this thing could go in.

Since I released that publically I also released this little per script AIM2Growl that I run in the background. It signs onto AIM given the screen name and password given on the command line and any messages sent to that screen name are then passed onto Growl (a Mac OS X utility that posts transient alerts to the user). I have many IM persona, one of them has some bots (e.g. Cornell Corona as buddies and these bots post notices of interesting things. Some of the scripts that monitor the health of my machines also IM that persona.

Since the speed reading mode only works in emacs I wanted and i wanted to be able to read postscript files I went looking for the tools to do that. txutils.el enhances emac’s view-file command to automatically convert file formats into text or html. Then you’ll need pdftotext which is bundled with xpdf.

The easy way to install xpdf on the mac is sudo port install xpdf, presuming you have port installed.

ice storm

Look (update: opps, we used up all his bandwidth) at this unbelievable photo from this set about the recent ice storm in the high plains. Those are individual stems of stray covered in ice thicker than your two fists!

Meanwhile here in Boston it’s 70 degrees and doubling amazing the sky is perfectly blue. In the winter warm usually comes with wet, very disconcerting.

Dyslexia, another model and a therapy

I suspect my readers have figured out I suffer from dyslexia, well regarding that this work by Gadi Geiger, Jerry Lettvin, and others is thought provoking.

They found interesting visual test you can run to test for dyslexia. You have the subject stare at a dot a screen, and then you briefly flash a single letter in place of the dot. At the same time you also flash another letter a some distance away from the centered letter. You then ask the subject to enter the two letters. A series of these samples allows you to build a map of how the subject’s visual focus ranges across his visual field.

Not surprisingly people skill at catching that second letter varies with how far from the centered letter it appears. But dyslexics, apparently, tend to drop off more rapidly in near the center while they are better at catching the letters further off from the center. This matches up nicely with the experiance of dyslexia, i.e. that it’s difficult to see the individual words and one is often skittering about on the page noticing items that if you could manage your attention more successfully would be ignored. I also am amused by how this ties into some of the stuff I’ve been thinking recently about attention managment.

They also noticed that the focus of attention across the field of vision is shaped differently for people who read English v.s. Hebrew (which is read left to right).

They also noticed that dyslexics who have managed to learn to be effective readers, like me, will have one mode when they are attentive and another when they are fatigued. Boy I’m familiar with that syndrome.

Based on this test, and optimism about the plasticity of the brain, they invented a little therapy to try. They cut a hole in an index card so that only a dozen letters of text were visible and asked some kids with dyslexia to try reading through that window for a few weeks.  This turned out to be amazingly effective! Presumably it trains the visual system to attend more closely to the material near the point were your reading.

Update: Having attended a talk by Geiger it appears that description is missing a critical element; i.e. they also asked the kids to engage in an art/craft activity that involved fine motor and eye coordination.  Follow on studies have indicated this is a necessary component of the therapy.  Why exactly they included this complementary activity is unclear to me, but it helps explain why nobody stumbled on the therapy before.  Gadi suggested it was an intuitive move; possibly triggered by some studies done in the years before this.  Those studies showed that active hand/eye interaction made a substantial difference in people’s ability to compensate for the effects of silly goggles that did things like shift your vision six inches to the right.

I want to note that this approach doesn’t attempt to treat the cause of dyslexia. The visual field anomaly is a symptom and the therapy treats that symptom. Dyslexia has other symptoms, for example there are significant phonetic aspects which make it miserable to learn a foreign language, recall names, or repeat words you hear.

Reading thru a window also used in some speed reading schemes; see for example this demo of RSVP and if you like that try this this Firefox extension.

I wrote an emacs mode that simulates their index card.

Weak Governance

One spectrum you can map governance failures onto is too-weak/too-strong.  For example publicly traded firms often fail by excessive aggregation of power into the hands of the senior executives.  Since there’s no meaningful oversight because the shareholders are highly fragmented, disinterested, and not particularly loyal.  So over time more and more governance decisions default to senior management; and thenbad things can happen.

I’ve been thinking about this through the example domain of condo associations; using the examples Evan Mckenzie posts on his blog.  The too-hot examples in that sphere are condo managers who become little dictators.  I don’t doubt there is a great comedy movie waiting to be made about them.

Much more common I suspect are the failures of governance the too-cool kind.    Since I first read Evan he has come to be concerned that these associations often (almost always) a financial time-bomb. That almost none of these associations are prepared to deal with the huge costs that will arise shortly when their infrastructure requires costly repairs.  There are millions of these, because for example on my house is a two unit condo.  Though of course some of them approach the size of small cities.

Our little garage roof is an example of a financial time bomb.  We should have fixed 20 years ago but now it’s rotten and the whole thing will need to come off before it collapses onto the cars.  This ain’t going to be cheap and nobody I know is interested in volunteering to project manage the job.  A lot of these places were built on the cheap and sold fast, and in some of the big cities they sold off portions of the public housing stock to their poor residents.  When those roof fails the residents won’t have my resources to deal with the problem.  It’s a failure of my imagination that I can’t see the comedy movie waiting to be made about too little governance.

The in the condo associations the worse case scenarios of weak governance failures often require that the state step in.  If the condo is forced to fix the roof and then can’t pay for it the courts will put them in receivership and the receiver will send the owners a bill that will bankrupt them.  Here’s another example: the timesharing association was so weak that they didn’t pay their taxes and so the state sold the property.  Apparently they are still disputing who ought to have been notified before the sale happened, the association board, or the horde of people who bought tiny time share slices?

Image cacheing, chapter 2

Well actually more like chapter 11.  This problem has evolved into one of the problems that requires hours of focused attention and I don’t have those available.  I’ve turned it off.  Presumably this will some of the sites I host unusable slow for some people; for others it will make them usable again.