Archive for April, 2004

Erdos Status Market Report

Friday, April 30th, 2004


I assume that most of my readers have low Erdos numbers and will therefore wish to know what they are worth. My original bid of $1.35 turned out to be too low. The number five went for $1,031 dollars.



As you can see from the screen shot bellow even eBay, market-maker to the world, ponders “How did this happen?”.


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Update:: The virtue of erdos numbers has found a defender! A rightous Don Quixote . A brave man willing to defend the foundations of the ivory tower from such flippant conceptual undermining.

Moore’s Law and his Friends, II

Friday, April 30th, 2004

This illustration is lifted from this talk by John Seely-Brown. It’s a nice illustration of how Moore’s friends are more potent than he is.

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The order of the last term in that illustration, the value of the emerging network of connection, is very much still in dispute. Metcalf’s law? Reed’s law? Something else entirely. It is a question of what the systems that emerge above the network substrate look like; their topology. It’s a question about group forming. How much centralization, how much diversity, how many groups a single player participates in, how many firms an industry contains.

I’ve been playing with the thought that maybe this is about the outcome of the singularity. If the order of that term is smaller then the machines win; if it’s larger then mankind wins.

Link Value

Thursday, April 29th, 2004

I was quite affected by this line in an interview with John Seely Brown:

Blogs are powerful when there’s a set of blogs working independently that end up helping you triangulate on the same point. You have different points of view that end up linking to the same mega-idea. If you have three independent rumors that all say the same thing, then that rumor may turn out to have a certain kind of significance. What’s interesting is whether we should read blogs in the same way as we read a newspaper.

Notice, also, that blogs can suddenly reach a critical mass that then forces something out into the open, into public consciousness. You might think of it as an analogy to the subconscious vs. the conscious.

That line triggerd a resorting in my head about the role of link is, what function it performs. I’ve been uncomfortable about the popular model where are currency in a reputation market.

Certianly there is market where valuation is based on counting links. Google, Technorati, etc. etc. have made that perfectly clear. In these markets A linking to B raises B’s valuation, at least for a while. Measuring the value of a site in this manner has the advantage of being easy and the disadvantage that links are a very noisy proxy for value.

Site valuation markets become reputation because we tend to confuse a site with it’s author. Much as the link is a poor by convient tool for site valuation the site is a poor but convient tool for pinning a reputation to it’s author.

My discomfort with model of links as reputation currency has a third leg. Network graphs like these always have power-law nature. Winners in such populations are often the result of processes that have little to do with quality.

So, in the back of my head I’ve been uncomfortable with the model of link as reputaion currency. John’s triggered a different model to condense in my head.

Ideas are attempting to emerge from the soil. Authors are kicking the dirt trying to set them free. The link’s role is as a spade. It doesn’t serve the site, or the author, or the status economy. It serves the desperate struggle of the ideas to escape.

One reason for the confusion about this is the culture’s fetish for assuming that ideas are owned objects. That the if I dig up an idea I get to lay claim to it. That model presumes that ideas are like rare mushrooms hidden in dangerous dark forests. That the search for each of them is a solitary persuit demanding great self sacrific and risk. In this myth discovery is work of heros who leave hearth, home, and family to seek out these treasures. Surely there are such ideas, but there are other kinds.

There are lots of ideas that emerge from the work of collective efforts. Wherever a crowd gathers such ideas will emerge. So if a problem becomes well identified and a crowd gathers to start wailing away at it, over time they will likely pick away at it until a solution emerges. That’s on the demand side - where a problem appears - but it also happens on the supply side when a new tool emerges. So when Moore’s Law and his friends create new opportunities a crowd gathers to seek the solutions that enables.

Such strong-demand/strong-supply situations are often well tackled collectively. In such sitatutions the link between websites acting as way to signal to the crowd the existance of new information, possible new ideas, possible new approaches, possible new problems. New stuff if brought together just might help useful ideas to emerge.

Google was built almost entirely on the noticing that some folks were creating pages of links about a particular topic. If Joe creates a page of links about topic X then he’s revealing that he’s working on X. He is in effect saying “Join me! Bring your tools! Bring your problems! Together maybe we can dig up some ideas!”

Elites

Wednesday, April 28th, 2004


Wouldn’t it be simpler if we just standardized on one ranking scale?


No, it wouldn’t.


Update: but wait there is more! I guess if your going to have empire your really get to know your assorted elites.

Paradox of Choice

Wednesday, April 28th, 2004

The library’s copy of Paradox of Choice has gotten around to me. I’m bummed that I didn’t learn very much. I guess, I know too much about modern marketing. Good news, there is one very amusing item, a joke, about half way through.

But first, a story. In the 1950s Herb Simon at CMU passed an insight from one side of campus to the other.

He was working on Artificial Intelligence, building computer programs to play games. If you write such programs you quickly discover that your human opponents wander off before your software has time to pick the best move. To keep them engaged you’d better make some compromises.

Simon passed this insight to the folks over the business school.  Their the insight evolved into the idea that economic entities (firms, business men) rarely, if ever, seek the best outcome.   Instead economic actors make trade-offs just like the AI programs. They seek satisfactory outcomes rather than the best outcomes.

At it’s core the Paradox of Choice is joke.  The world is made up of those two kinds of people: the maximizers and the satisfiers. Maximizers spend more resources on getting the best possible outcome and satisfiers don’t. The joke is on the Maximizers. They do tend to archive their goal, accumulating more than the satisfiers, but ironically they are never satisfied. Depression is highly correlated with maximizing behavior.

This is the books’ key insight - you can make somebody miserable by converting them into a Maximizer.

You do this by presenting them with more choices. That encourages a switch in their behavior from happy satisfier to depressed maximizer. It’s a denial of service attack on the problem solving mechanism.

Remember: “marketing is war” and “planning is what you do to avoid action.”