Archive for June, 2002

Last name hit parade

Thursday, June 27th, 2002

This chart shows the population of individuals in the US sorted into buckets. One bucket for each last name. One dot for each bucket. Only the three thousand most popular names are shown.

last_name.gif

The axis on the left shows how popular a given name is, while the bottom axis shows what percentage of the population has that name. Both axis are log scales.

My last name, for example, is aproximately number 1000 on the last name hit parade. The bottom axis shows what percentage of the population enjoy that name, i.e. nearly .01 percent of the population.

This data comes from the US Census, say thank you! Try your name.

The striking thing about this chart is how smooth and straight it is (the choppy part at the upper left is due to how the data only had three digits after the decimal point). This pattern is known as Zipf’s Law and it appears in a lot of data involving systems with large interacting populations: words, cities, etc. etc ) where there is some ‘competitive advantage’ for the larger subpopulations.

Drive on the Right!

Thursday, June 27th, 2002
camel.jpg
When Afganistan tried driving on the right. The camels didn’t cooperate, so they switched back.

Some standards prescribe how to perform a solitary task. How to make plaster: mix the powder into the water never the other way around. The value adopting such standards is limited to improving the task at hand. Other standards that create efficiencies for the interaction of pairs or groups of people interest me. These are the rules that govern handshakes, roads, communication, meetings, trade, etc. The value in adopting these standards grows as more people you interact with adopt them - they have what is known as “Network Effect”.

Consider why people drive on the right hand side of the road (sadly that link is broken and the original essay at New Scientist has gone missing. Here is a substitute). This is a wonderful example. This “standard battle” unfolded over centuries.

On uncrowded roads you need no standard beyond avoiding the potholes. As crowding develops localities randomly pick something standard. They have a slight tendency to pick the “safer” standard: the drive on the left where your sword arm can defend you. Authorities, like the Pope, and events, like the crusades, help the standard to spread. The standard becomes tied to other issues, e.g. the upper class ride on the left while the lower classes walk on the right. “Know your place.” Come the revolution in France. “Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite!” Everybody drives on the right. This standards war then plays out thru Napoleon, Hitler, and the American century so that today the majority of the planet drives on the right. But still India’s billion people drive on the left since neither Napoleon nor Hitler conquered England.

I’m interested in how standards and network effects arise; how they spread; how they are disrupted. There are plenty of hints in this one story.

The Left Handshake

Tuesday, June 25th, 2002

I’m interested in standards, the behaviors that groups adopt which on the one hand reduce the diversity while on the other add some efficiency.

Many standards are informal, possibly the majority. Consider the handshake. Why hold your hand vertically or offer the right hand? It is not hard to make up insta-theories for these choices.

lefthandshake.jpgThe boy scouts have a different standard handshake, the “Left Handshake”, which mirrors the standard handshake. If you are going to use a non-standard handshake people are going to react. “What’s up with that?” they will say. Secret handshakes always come with a story.

The Boy Scouts tell a delightful set of stories (imagine telling these in a hushed tone these around a campfire). “The chief of the opposing tribe appeared, flung down his shield and held out his left hand.” Or “The Ashanti Chief said to Colonel Baden-Powell: ‘No in my country the bravest of the brave shake with the left hand.’ So began the “left handshake” of the world-wide brotherhood of Scouts

Linked: The New Science of Networks

Monday, June 24th, 2002

Oh this is exciting, a whole book about how systems with network topology work.

graph_growing.jpg

Linked: The New Science of Networks by Albert-Laszlo Barabasi.

The book’s website includes a nice visual companion, though it suggests the book might suffer from ‘people magazine syndrome’. Boy I hope this is a good book

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How to get Rich

Monday, June 24th, 2002

Five ways to get rich:

  • pick the right parents (inheritance),
  • pick the right spouse (marry well),
  • pick the right pocket (theft & conquest),
  • pick the right card (luck,serendipity, gambling), or
  • pick the right trade (craft, profession, industy).

This list was triggered by an essay by Brad DeLong on how the standards around inheritance have evolved thru time. I’d love to know which of these techniques explains what percentage of a given dollar of wealth.

Assuming wealth floats your boat…
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